It's only in recent years that the Golden Globe Awards have come to be regarded less as a joke and more as an significant ceremony. This is thanks to their perspicacity in predicting Academy Award winners-a somewhat incomprehensible phenomenon, since the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), composed of about 90 foreign journalists, is a bizarre voting body that bears little resemblance to the 5,607-member Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Nonetheless, the 2003 Globe winners helped clarify what was still a murky competition for the Oscars. Ironically, perhaps the least interesting category was Best Picture. I can't imagine many were surprised that blue-blooded, critically acclaimed "The Hours" won Best Motion Picture Drama; "Chicago" was always a lock for Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy, in no small part because it represents the first commercially successful musical since 1972's "Cabaret." Regardless, as things stand, the Best Picture Oscar belongs to one of the two.

The HFPA's choices in the lead acting categories seem to have been more influential in terms of weeding out lead Oscar contenders. In the leading acting category, Daniel Day-Lewis' startling, colossal performance in "Gangs of New York" as Bill the Butcher has been called one of the most memorable portraits of villainy recorded on film. But the HFPA has historically been ludicrously glamour-friendly, and its unsurprising choice of favorite son Jack Nicholson for Actor in a Leading Role has lessened Day-Lewis' chances, considering he also lacks the support that "Gangs'" commercial success would have provided. Even more telling was the choice of Nicole Kidman as Actress in a Leading Role for "The Hours." It's extremely rare that any one actress dominates the early critics' awards to the extent that "Far From Heaven's" Julianne Moore did; of the 17 different groups, she took the prize from 12. But Kidman's Globe represents more than just the brilliance of her portrayal of Virginia Woolf; it's a manifestation of the fervor of public favor that has accompanied her wildly successful career flourish following her very public divorce from Tom Cruise, and indicates that the Oscar is anything but a sure bet for Moore.

As for Best Director, the Globes only confirmed the inevitable fact of Martin Scorsese's excellent odds for victory. Despite the mixed response of both the public and the critics to "Gangs of New York," the director, for the reason of never having won the award, is the leading contender. This category isn't always about who directed the best film-it can be about tradition and prestige (e.g., Steven Spielberg's 1997 award for "Saving Private Ryan") and it can be about rewarding quality when sentiment is set to prevail in the Best Picture category (such as the case of Steven Soderbergh being named Best Director for 2000's "Traffic" while the inferior but popular "Gladiator" took the top prize.) This year, it seems it might be about correcting a decades-old injustice.