Will Win: "Chicago"

Should Win: "The Hours"

The year's most moving and memorable film is also its most misinterpreted. "The Hours" is by no means seamless, but its flaws are the kind that only serve to illustrate, even more lucidly, how difficult it is to render the indefinable turmoils of the three women it depicts.

Best Actress

Will Win: Nicole Kidman, "The Hours"

Should Win: Nicole Kidman, "The Hours"

There's little doubt as to who will take this category-Kidman is pretty much a sure shot. But as to who deserves it, it's a close call between Kidman and Julianne Moore ("Far From Heaven,") whose performance was one of such restrained disquiet that she enabled intimacy with a film that's otherwise difficult to access. Still, my vote goes to Kidman: her Virginia Woolf is one for the times.

Best Actor

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Gangs of New York"

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Gangs of New York"

It's really too close to call between Nicholson and Day-Lewis, but there's no doubt as to who deserves the prize: Day-Lewis' Bill the Butcher is one of the most indelible performances by an actor. Ever.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Meryl Streep, "Adaptation"

Should Win: Meryl Streep, "Adaptation"

Moore could slip in for her lovely "Hours" performance, but Streep, left out of the Best Actress category for "The Hours," is the deserving favorite: in her first unmannered performance in years, she gets hysterically loose, down and dirty. It's a pleasure to watch.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Chris Cooper, "Adaptation"

Should Win: Chris Cooper, "Adaptation"

There's little debate and even less doubt as to the victor of this category. Cooper plays a character with gratuitous eccentricities, yet manages not only to avoid rendering a cartoon or parody, but to make the orchid-obsessed madman sympathetic, repellant and boisterously hilarious all at once. Not one of the other performances holds a candle to it.

Best Director

Will Win: Martin Scorsese, "Gangs of New York"

Should Win: Stephen Daldry, "The Hours," or Pedro Almodóvar, "Talk to Her"

Scorsese is yet another certainty in this remarkably unambiguous year. And he deserves the Oscar-he just doesn't deserve it for "Gangs," a messy melange of artistry and gibberish. Almodóvar made arguably his best film to date, and Daldry created a chef d'oeuvre out of material that is nearly impossible to adapt. A win for either would be thoroughly deserved.