It was a good year for Hollywood. For the first time in years, we weren't forced to turn entirely away from studio products to see quality films, and the Best Picture nominees reflect this: "Mystic River," "Master and Commander" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" ("LOTR") are all examples of the major studios getting it right (the less said about the unremarkable "Seabiscuit" getting a nomination, the better.) Of the nominees, only the sublime "Lost in Translation" was an independent film. There would be no shame in the Oscar going to "Mystic" or "Lost," but at the end of the day, it's hard to ignore the incredible achievement that the "LOTR" finale marks: It works both as a brilliant adaptation of the novel and a breathtaking work on its own.
Who Should Win:
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."
Who Will Win:
Anything but the "LOTR" would be shocking.
Director
As usual, the Director nominees don't match up with the Picture nominees, and this year's victim is "Seabiscuit" director Gary Ross, who failed to score a nomination. Instead, Fernando Meirelles came out of the blue to score a nod for the little-seen "City of God." He's a worthy nominee, to be sure, but so are all the other contenders: Peter Jackson for the "LOTR," Peter Weir for "Master and Commander," Clint Eastwood for "Mystic River" and Sofia Coppola for "Lost in Translation." There's not a weak link in the bunch: Each nominee would deserve the little naked gold man. But again, I'm going to go with Peter Jackson. He took on an unwieldy monster of a project and somehow extracted a cohesive, coherent, profoundly satisfying film.
Who Should Win:
Peter Jackson.
Who Will Win:
Peter Jackson.
Actress
The most interesting-and surprising-set of nominees. The only questionable one is Keisha Castle-Hughes ("Whale Rider"), who is so young that it's difficult to tell whether her guileless performance was the result of real talent or a sleight of hand by the film's director. Diane Keaton is a pure pleasure in "Something's Gotta Give," but that's largely because we're so glad to see her back in form. Samantha Morton ("In America") and Naomi Watts ("21 Grams") are both stunning in their respective roles, and both would be deserving winners in any other year. But this year belongs to Charlize Theron ("Monster"), whose portrayal of serial killer Aileen Wuornos is so raw it's frightening.
Who Should Win:
Charlize Theron.
Who Will Win:
Almost surely Theron, though ever-popular Keaton has a shot.
Actor
It's nice to see that the Academy can recognize a great comedic performance. Though one wonders whether Johnny Depp's hysterical Captain Jack Sparrow in "Pirates of the Caribbean" is really what great acting is all about, there's no doubt that Bill Murray's subtly beautiful turn in "Lost in Translation," the pinnacle of a long, great career, is well worth an Oscar. Jude Law's "Cold Mountain" performance was merely adequate, and while Ben Kingsley was both monstrous and moving in "House of Sand and Fog," he's overshadowed by Murray and Sean Penn, whose performance in "Mystic River" is raging and affecting.
Who Should Win:
Sean Penn or Bill Murray.
Who Will Win:
This was Penn's race to lose until he failed to follow up his Golden Globes no-show with the expected gracious public appearances. Murray will give him a run for his money, though in the final tally, Penn's "Mystic" method mania should prevail.
Supporting Actress
Though there were few surprise nominees here, this is the category in which the Academy has traditionally has thrown expectations to the wind in picking a winner. Holly Hunter grounds "Thirteen" with her non-showy performance, as Shohreh Aghdashloo does in "House of Sand and Fog." Marcia Gay Harden is devastating as the most pathetic victim in "Mystic River," though her screen time is limited, and the heretofore underrated Patricia Clarkson absolutely steals "Pieces of April." Only Renee Zellweger's brassy, screechy country gal in "Cold Mountain" underwhelms.
Who Should Win:
Aghdashloo, Clarkson or Hunter-each is superb.
Who Will Win:
The only undeserving nominee, Zellweger, has been the frontrunner for eons, largely because there's a sense she's owed a make-up Oscar for the one she lost last year. But she peaked early, and Aghdashloo has been building momentum. This one is too close to call.
Supporting Actor
All hail Alec Baldwin! After years of making a decent amount of trash, the actor has recently begun revealing the character actor within, and we're all the happier for it. His delicious performance as a sleazy casino owner in "The Cooler" is B-movie perfection. And he's in good company. Benicio Del Toro is so fearsome as a hulking born-again ex-con in "21 Grams" that he's difficult to watch, and Djimon Hounsou's portrayal of "In America" AIDS victim, though small, is affecting. You can't take exception to Ken Watanabe in "The Last Samurai," but that's in good part because his performance is set off by Tom Cruise's desperately earnest eye-twitching. Then there's Tim Robbins in "Mystic River." His performance is so authentic that his character, though he might be a murderer, is the most deeply, pitiably human of the lot.
Who Should Win:
Tim Robbins.
Who Will Win:
Tim Robbins.