Though the Golden Globes, which aired on Jan. 16, are without a doubt the most publicized of the pre-Oscar awards ceremonies, many critics doubt their true clout when it comes to swaying Academy voters. One reason this may ring true is that while the Golden Globe awards are given by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a relatively small group of less than 90; the Academy is made up of several thousand voters, including a large number of individuals involved in film making, the largest group being actors. This leads one to imagine that Academy voters will vote more like those of the various guilds.
According to most critics, the winners of the Producers Guild of America Awards (PGAs), Writers Guild of America Awards (WGAs), Directors Guild of America Awards (DGAs) and, probably the most publicized, the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs) are usually better predictors, especially when guild winners don't match up with Globes winners.
For example, take last year's Golden Globe Awards. While Martin Scorcese's "The Aviator" took home both Best Picture and Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) honors, DGA winner Clint Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby" nearly swept the top Oscars, taking home Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Hilary Swank) and Best Supporting Actor (Morgan Freeman). Freeman was a SAG pick that year, who was snubbed at the Globes; his award went to Clive Owen, of "Closer." "Closer" also received a Globe for Best Supporting Actress (Natalie Portman), but the movie was almost non-existent at the Oscars. Instead, the award went to Cate Blanchett, also a SAG winner.
Because the Globes have more categories, there are more winners and thus less competition. The SAGs, on the contrary, consolidate the many Globes categories as do the Academy Awards. Globes winners are often put head-to-head at the SAGs; if they win, it may ensure another win at the Oscars.
The SAGs, which aired last Sunday, certainly sealed the fate of some actors, while helping others stretch slightly ahead of the competition. Best Male Performance went to Philip Seymour Hoffman for his portrayal of Truman Capote, who beat out fellow Globe winner Joaquin Phoenix ("Walk the Line"). Phoenix's co-star Reese Witherspoon, however, received an award for Best Female Performance, hurting Felicity Huffman's chances in March. The prize for the best male supporting performance was awarded to Paul Giamatti for his work in "Cinderella Man," and its female counterpart awarded to Rachel Weisz ("The Constant Gardener"). Finally, Best Ensemble Performance went to "Crash," a movie that was absent from the corresponding Golden Globes category.
As for Oscar picks, other guild and critic awards may help put the upcoming race into perspective. The Best Motion Picture Award is usually toughest to predict. "Brokeback Mountain" has gained a steady following and received the PGA's highest honor as well as a Globe. "Brokeback" director Ang Lee walked away with the DGA Best Director award, which may secure the movie two big wins this March.
Since 1970, the DGA has correctly pegged the Oscar winner 30 out of 35 times, and in the past 12 years, the nine DGA winners have gone on to nab the Best Picture Oscar. "Crash," the little-film-that-could and "Good Night, and Good Luck" have both been honored by a slew of awards, and "Capote" received Best Picture by the National Society of Film Critics, but the epic "Brokeback" may ultimately be the Academy's top pick.
"Capote" star Hoffman is a shoo-in for Best Actor, with a total of 15 awards won thus far for his portrayal of the famous writer. The Best Actress race is a close one between Felicity Huffman and Reese Witherspoon. Though Huffman may very well deserve the Oscar for "Transamerica," Witherspoon has garnered the most wins thus far, and her spirited portrayal of June Carter Cash may earn her the award, especially since "Walk the Line" was unexpectedly shut out of the Best Picture category.
Best Supporting Actor will most likely belong to Paul Giamatti, who was shut out from the Academy's nomination for his work in "Sideways" last year. He has won most major awards honors and may continue the streak in March, though Clooney's "Syriana" role has also received critical acclaim. The same can be said for Rachel Weisz, who should prove another favorite.
With the nominations for the Academy Awards announced Monday night, it would appear that "Brokeback Mountain," with eight nods, is the force to be reckoned with. "Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" each follow with six nominations. The Oscars will air on Mar. 5-keep an eye out for the cowboys.
Selected Golden Globes 2006 Winners
Best Director
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
"Brokeback Mountain"
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Best Performance for an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
"Walk the Line"
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture Rachel Weiz, "The Constant Gardener"
Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture George Clooney, "Syriana"