Very few products are guaranteed the sort of success that Sony's PlayStation 3 (PS3) will achieve. Sony's success is so certain that it has barely done anything to publicize the console since the news of the release first hit more than a year ago. Sony also did very little to counteract Microsoft's Xbox 360 release, aside from announcing a conveniently timed clip for the greatly anticipated Metal Gear Solid 4. Despite the apparent non-existence of a working PS3 unit, Sony is still adamant that it will get the console out sometime this spring. If that goal seems to you somewhat lofty, you're not alone.

Practically every industry analyst, even the ones who don't normally cover gaming trends, is betting that Sony will most definitely delay the console. I will come clean and admit that I have severe doubts about the console as well. With a delay inevitable, the real question is when the PS3 will actually come out, and this is where the tech pundits are divided. In my opinion, Sony isn't foolish enough to let Microsoft remain the only next-generation console for another holiday season. Given that, I predict that we'll see the PS3 sometime between September and Christmas. A fall release is far more likely than a summer release since the gaming industry tends to avoid the latter.

Why is everyone so certain that the current PS3 timetable is unreasonable? The answer lies in the console's next-generation hardware, much of which isn't yet available anywhere else in the market. The two big problems I foresee for Sony are: one, the production of the PS3's fabled Cell processor; and two, the production of the Blu-ray drive and discs that will store and play the games.

The Cell processor, which was developed by IBM, Sony and Toshiba, is supposed to herald a new age of consumer devices. It was developed to be a versatile and scalable solution for servers and other consumer devices in addition to the Playstation 3 (refer to wikipedia.org). There is no question that the Cell will be a very powerful chip, but I seriously doubt that Sony will be able to affordably and reliably manufacture enough Cell chips for a spring launch. The same is true for the Blu-ray technology which the PS3 relies on. Both of these technologies will be revolutionary once they become a reality, but Sony has done nothing to prove that these technologies are ready for public consumption. When you take into account that stand-alone Blu-ray players will probably go for upwards of $500 this spring, it seems unlikely that Sony will be able to mass-produce the technology for a game console in the next few months.

With two of its most important hardware components in question, it's no surprise that we still haven't seen a working PlayStation 3. A simple demo of a working PS3 box would easily allay its fans' worries, but it seems like Sony can't even manage that. As a result, the PlayStation 3 is currently a hodgepodge of unproven technology.

I haven't yet mentioned the eventual pricing, which even by Sony's accounts will be exorbitant. Ken Kutaragi, the venerated father of the PlayStation, has gone on record saying that the PS3 will be much more expensive than the average new console. A higher than normal price is to be expected, given the new technology in the device. While many have complained about the Xbox 360's $400 price tag, I wouldn't be surprised if the PS3 is launched costing over $500.

Sony doesn't seem to be content with having the PS3 just serve as a gaming device; the company wants it to be the centerpiece of your home entertainment system. This is primarily why Sony chose to include Blu-ray with the console-it would be the first Blu-ray player for most consumers. I have to question this approach, mainly because it's diverting attention from the console's main purpose as a gaming machine. Sony has already tried to turn its PlayStation Portable into a media device, and that has left the gaming aspects of that machine in the dust. While it's difficult to screw up such a sure thing, I can only hope that Sony's hubris doesn't undermine its most worthwhile product line.