Speaking to a sparse crowd in Johnson Chapel, Birnbaum, the Washington bureau chief of Fortune, described the complexity of Washington politics.
"The only way I view it is to look at Washington as if it were the capital of a foreign country. It is a very peculiar place," he said.
Birnbaum explained that discontent with the government was a result of our nation's system of checks and balances and he provided a new way to look at voter decisions.
"A lot of people don't know that. Our founding fathers put together this system of government so that it wouldn't work," explained Birnbaum. "This whole system was designed to keep things from happening easily; in fact, in most cases nothing happens."
"The political atmosphere actually favors the Democrats. The Republican party did the worst thing they could have possibly have done, to get done what they most wanted to do," added Birnbaum.
Birbaum explained that Republicans urged voters to vote for them in order to end fiscal deficits: "When they succeeded, it was the worst thing possible," said Birnbaum, who explained that it left the Republicans with no major goals to accomplish.
The Republican majority in Congress is so slim that if the Democrats win even a few seats in the election they will regain the majority, he added.
The next issue Birnbaum discussed was the presidential election.
"If you look at history you will see economic growth has been an indicator in elections after one term in office," he said.
"In 1992, Bill Clinton persuaded people that the economy was not growing. If people did vote for the economy, they would have voted for Bush," he added.
The closeness of the election contributes significantly to the importance of larger states such as California and the swing states.
"Politics is a study of votes on the margin. The most important state is Florida," said Birnbaum. "If Florida goes to Gore, then it's not a bad bet that Gore will be the next President."
"If Florida goes to Bush, two states will come into play. Whoever wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan will win the election. If California turns out to be a Bush state, then Gore is finished," added Birnbaum.
In response to a student question, Birnbaum addressed the nature of campaigns.
"Campaigns are designed to prevent people from seeing who they actually are," said Birnbaum. "But I think over time campaigns are not masks, but windows into the souls of people."
Reaction to Birnbaum's lecture was mostly positive. "The tips to gauge who will win were the most interesting," said Julie Babayan '03. "He was particularly articulate on how things really are in Washington."