This year's lecture, titled "Your Generation and Politics," described a political world that today's college students will soon have to face.
"The United States is in the late stage of being the world's leading economic power-maybe there are 15 years left, maybe 30, but we're past the halfway mark," said Phillips as he introduced his topic.
Phillips filled the lecture with predictions about the U.S. Most of his evidence was from his most recent book, "Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich." He described an American culture in decline, signaled by military overextension, an increasingly service-oriented economy, a growing income gap and technology transfer to developing countries. According to Phillips, all these signs were mirrored in the declines of Great Britain and Holland as world powers.
Phillips gave a description of the political turnover that is characteristic of American politics. He linked the phenomenon to generational change. He pointed out that this turnover seemed as if it would occur in 1992, with Clinton's election. But that possibility was disproven by the election of George W. Bush. That election was a product of what Phillips called "the dynastization of America."
The Bush dynasty, he said, is just one example of the "stratifying and calcifying" of American wealth. Phillips cited statistics showing that, from 1979 to 1997, the average household cash income of the lowest quartile of Americans decreased slightly. In the top one percent of households, income almost tripled. The wealthiest Americans, who have a disproportionate amount of political power, also used their influence to decrease the inheritance tax. "Some of them would be happy to have a House of Lords if you could put one together," said Phillips.
According to Phillips, another indication that America is stagnating is the nature of Washington, D.C. today. Neither political party has a monopoly but together the two force out all competition. "Parties don't mean much anymore," he said.
Phillips gave some indication of which country he thought could be the next world superpower. "The next changeover of world leadership is likely to be to Asia," said Phillips. "You can see the change in Silicon Valley already; more than 50 percent of the Cisco work force is on worker's visas. We don't train engineers anymore-most people choose to be lawyers like me, or study liberal arts."
Students had a range of reactions to the lecture. "It was probably more relevant than a lot of college students would like to admit," said Elise Chad '06.
"He states the obvious!" said Alicia Cao '06.
"It's abundantly obvious that China will be the second superpower," said Russell Kornblith '06. But Kornblith was uncomfortable with some of Phillips' statements on the power of religion. "I was a little taken aback by the statement that Islam is full of nuts," he said.
Others expressed mixed emotions about Phillips' statements. "I agreed with Phillips' rather cynical prognosis," said Aaron Hall '06. "At the same time, I felt a desire to save America from its inexorable decline."
"I agree on the decline in the economy and politics, but that doesn't mean the decline of America as a whole," said Ben Rogers '06.
Others students raised more specific concerns. "There's no correlation between the inheritance tax and the entrenchment of American wealth," said Jason Klinghoffer '06.
After the lecture, at a student reception, Phillips made some recommendations for people interested in saving America. "[You] should be interested carefully ... support limited causes," he said. "Special interests have more control if you don't vote ... don't assume you're going to change a hell of a lot, like in the sixties when they thought they were going to bring down government."
Phillips had an additional piece of advice for students. "Raise the youth voter turnout," he said. "Or your generation won't make a difference."
Phillips holds degrees from Colgate University and Harvard Law School. Coming from a Republican family, he went to work for a Republican Congressman after graduation.
His book "The Emerging Republican Majority," published in 1969, was called the "political Bible of the Nixon Era" by Newsweek magazine. He went on to write several non-fiction bestsellers, won a Pulitzer prize, and is editor of The American Political Report. He is currently a columnist for the Los Angeles Times and the Wall Street Journal and as a regular commentator on NPR.
Established by William M. Croxton '36, the lecture fund provides for a well known individual to address the freshman class as a supplement to the first year seminar program.