Cirincione recently attended the Conference on Nuclear Technology and Sustainable Development in Tehran. The main message of the conference, according to Cirincione, was the reality of Iran's nuclear development. "The Iranian nuclear program is here," he said. "It's real. It's not going away."
During his visit to Iran, Cirincione visited several nuclear facilities currently under construction. However, Cirincione pointed out that the issue is not the facilities themselves but what those facilities produce. "The problem is not the nuclear reactors," he said. "The problem is what goes into the reactors and what comes out of them."
The main problem is the nuclear facility in Natanz, which lies buried under 1.5 feet of concrete. "We don't penetrate 18 inches of concrete," he said. "Our bombs do not penetrate 18 inches of concrete." Cirincione added that this facility is not yet cause for great concern because its technology is outdated, and it only has 164 centrifuges, many of which do not work properly.
In order to make a single bomb, 2,000 centrifuges need to be in operation for at least a full year. A healthy nuclear reproduction program needs a total of 50,000 centrifuges. With such a small number of centrifuges, Iran is still 5-10 years away from achieving substantial nuclear capabilities, according to Cirincione.
Cirincione discussed that Iran has several likely motives behind its quest for nuclear power. First, nuclear power is cheaper than fuel. Second, in anticipation of diminishing oil supplies and an eventual switch to nuclear power, Iran wants to ensure that it has its own nuclear power supply before the U.S. asserts control over world nuclear power. And finally, Iran sees nuclear power as a key component in its race to gain recognition as a developed country.
Cirincione pointed out that there is a legitimate Iranian answer for its nuclear development program. "Why should we end this program?" Cirincione questioned from the point of view of an Iranian. "Show us another way forward." Cirincione continued, saying that Iran does not want to be excluded from the assets and technology that other countries have. "Other countries have this," he said, again from the perspective of an Iranian. "We want the rights other countries have."
Attacking Iran, according to Cirincione, would not be an effective solution to Iran's nuclear challenge nor would it provide the solution the U.S. desires. "The conservatives in the U.S. anticipate negotiations failing. The only solution [in their minds] is to take out Iran's nuclear reactors," he said.
Cirincione said that the current discussion about Iran is part of a bigger issue. "The real issue is the continual regional transformation of the Middle East. This process began with Iraq and represents the American government's attempt to create pro-Western, pro-American society using diplomacy where it works and military power where it is necessary."
The success of the U.S. campaign against nuclear proliferation rests upon the effectiveness of negotiation rather than military strategy, according to Cirincione. He proposed that the U.S. devise a win-win scenario. Through a quid pro quo agreement, the U.S. should allow Iran to build nuclear reactors and supply them with newer, more efficient and cheaper nuclear technology. "Give Iran an economic and nuclear package that can satisfy their desire for prestige and respect," he said.
Cirincione argued that the U.S. needs to make compromises with other countries in order to achieve its own goals. "If you want the rest of the world to come over to our agenda, we have to go over to theirs," he said. "There has to be a shared obligation." By sharing its nuclear technologies, the U.S. can achieve its agenda of eliminating nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
Cirincione believes that it is possible for the U.S. to effectively stop nuclear proliferation. "You can stop these programs if you're smart enough, competent enough," he said. "You can do it. It just hasn't happened yet."
The dispute over nuclear power is chiefly a contest between the U.S. and Iran, according to Cirincione. "Who can isolate whom?" he questioned. "The fulcrum is the European Union." Iran currently has the second or third largest reserves of oil in the world. Since Europe wishes to avoid a war located in the center of such a huge oil supply, the success or failure of the Iran and U.S. negotiations may have profound ramifications for the European Union.
Cirincione concluded his discussion on an optimistic note. "Things are a lot better if there is a pro-American, pro-democratic government in Iran, and I'm hopeful that there can be a negotiation solution," he said.
Ben Lockwood '08, who attended the lecture, found Cirincione's talk enjoyable and informative. "I found Joe Cirincione's lecture to be very thorough explanation of the current state of nuclear technology in Iran, both in terms of technical abilities and political tensions with the United Nations and the United States," he said.