Speaking with a Specialist: Post-Debate Q&A with Prof. Dumm
By Katie Guthrie, News Editor
Following last night’s presidential debate, News Editor Katie Guthrie gave Amherst’s resident pundit and teacher of a course on the American Presidency, Professor of Political Science Thomas Dumm, a call to hear his post-debate analysis. The transcript follows.

Who the debate and why?

I think Obama won, and he won basically because the criteria that we use doesn’t have to do with whose scoring the most debating points, but they have to do with the general political dynamic. McCain was unable to change things. Obama was presidential, he looked calm. McCain was more articulate than he had been in the past. He came up with a new idea for the economy, but he didn’t change the game. And with the economy the way it is, and with the Republican record as it is, McCain had to do something to really, really unsettle the public about Obama. Now, obviously, they’re going to do that outside the debate.

Was the debate a game changer?

No, no game changer.

Do you think the subtle, emotional way of answering questions is more important than the actual substance of the answers?

It can be, it all depends. And this evening, as one was looking at the physical cues, again, Obama seemed relax, he seemed steady. McCain was more aggressive. McCain kept interrupting the end of his own sentences an awful lot, which he should not have done. He should have been a little calmer about his presentation of himself. He had a very difficult task ahead of him. He’s behind in the polls by a significant number. Obama is above 50 percent in the national polls. Once you get above 50 percent, the person who is on the short end of that needs to try to figure out ways to bring the person who is ahead back. And that involves attacking, and that is very difficult to do in a presidential debate. You could sort of see the line McCain was trying to walk, and it’s not an easy line to walk. He was self-consciously trying to figure out how to go fairly far and not go over the line. All Obama had to do was hold his own tonight and he did that.

What do you think the candidates need to do going forward?

Going forward it’s going to be tricky. The Republicans are turning to the really negative campaign at this point and it’s getting to the point where it’s a little scary. They’re questioning Obama’s loyalty to the country and they’re trying to turn him into a sinister figure. On the fringes, there are people who become very incited by these things. At a Palin rally, there were people shouting, “Kill him! Kill him!” The only thing they have left is to question if he’s fit for the office. It’s very hard to figure out how the Republicans can unlock the election at this point. Some act of another power, a terrorist attack from another country, like Iran attacking Israel, something like that, could still rattle the expectations of this election. But 28 days out is a long time. If I were the Obama people tonight I would feel pretty good about what happened, and if I were McCain’s people I would not.

Issue 06, Submitted 2008-10-08 02:06:26