For non-Catholics, the pope stands for all of the strengths and weaknesses of Catholic Christianity. His identity, nationality and convictions matter.
That said, I know nothing about who the next pope will be. I think that all speculation should be restrained by the reasonable recognition that spiritual deliberations of the College of Cardinals are not likely to be accessible to most of us. These men have given over their lives to the study of theology, and our grasp of their own science is likely to be no better than our ability to judge who will win the next Nobel Prize in physics.
On top of that, Catholics believe that the Holy Spirit will guide the selection of the next pope. The only safe thing to say is that all bets are off.
However, a few things are certain to remain the same, no matter who becomes the next pope. Abortion, the ordination of women, the definition of marriage, embryonic stem-cell research and euthanasia are, according to all reports, not even on the table for discussion.
As John Paul II said in his Ordinatio Sacerdotalis 11 years ago, the Roman pontiff could not overturn the principles of natural law and revealed truth even if he wanted to do so. So, contra the hopes of our friends from Smith College's Radical Catholic Feminist Alliance, there will be no 'progress.'
What there will be, with any luck, is more of the blessed same. The Catholic Church is the biggest charitable organization on earth, the fastest-growing denomination in the United States, and an intellectual bulwark for those who haven't yet bought into the lazy utilitarianism that marks most contemporary philosophy.
George Weigel, official biographer to Pope John Paul II, wrote recently that "Voltaire would be spinning in his grave at the thought of the papacy as a defender of the 'rights of man,'" but that is what St. Peter's next successor will have to be.
In Christianity's traditional heartland, Western Europe, human rights have no other defender against Dutch infanticide, France's militant laïcité, German malaise and the disturbing continental phenomenon of resurgent anti-Semitism.
As for progress more suited to Catholic tastes, one hopes (and we pray) for a reunification with the Orthodox, so that the church may breathe, as John Paul II said, "with both lungs again."
For the first time in centuries, it is possible to contemplate a rapprochement between Constantinople and Rome. Although a successful reunion might have the negative consequence of expanding the market for "The DaVinci Code", the spiritual rewards of such success will remain a virtuous temptation for the coming pope.
Another issue likely to be on the minds of the papabile is the Vatican's role in supporting religious freedom. Since the Second Vatican Council, the papacy has done an extraordinary amount to promote freedom of worship. John Paul II, in particular, made inter-religious dialogue a priority; his visits to the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem, the Umayyad mosque in Damascus, and Romania-notably, the first visits ever made by a pope to a Muslim house of worship and an Eastern Orthodox country-have planted the seeds of interfaith discussion, and it is to be expected that the new pope will continue that ambitious project.
The election of a new pope does not represent a new beginning for the Church-like the turning of the seasons, the election of a new pope is a regular reminder of our own mortality. It is said that John Paul II leaned heavily on the cross during the last years of his life. It is more certainly true that we Catholics have leaned heavily on his shepherd's crook. In prayer, then, we wait for his successor, in the hope that he may be a still better servus servorum dei.
Montana can be reached at jmontana08@amherst.edu