Ever since the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war, both countries continued to fight one another by supporting opposition groups in the other's territory, using mortar attacks and employing other aggressive measures to undermine one another's opposing regimes. The dispute between the two countries was over dominance of the Persian Gulf region, and the intense rivalry continued up until the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. From the 1980's until the present, Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the current Iranian regime were considered potentially dangerous militaristic countries that could be a threat to their neighbors or the rest of the world. After the Iran-Iraq war, the two regimes checked each other's influence in the Persian Gulf region relatively effectively with the exception of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, which required the United States' intervention. The United States' war in Iraq destroyed Iran's main rival in the Persian Gulf region. The destruction of Saddam Hussein's regime gave Iran the opportunity to develop nuclear weapons and assert its dominance in the Persian Gulf region without fear of opposition from another powerful rival like Iraq. Iran also saw that the United States' resources were spread too thin because of the war in Iraq and took the opportunity to develop nuclear technology without resistance. In addition, the United States responded to a credible nuclear threat like North Korea by giving it a light slap on the wrist, or a public censure. All of these factors made Iran believe that now is the right time for it to develop nuclear technology without repercussions from anyone.
The United States' original reasons for invading Iraq were to depose a regime founded on principles averse to the United States that threatened to rise to nuclear power. The message this sent to any country ideologically opposed to the United States was that it better get nuclear weapons soon, so the United States can't invade it and change the regime. This reasoning stems from the fact that the U.S. would not invade a nuclear power for fear of nuclear war (a sort of MAD or mutually assured destruction-based reasoning). Iran's boasting, bluffing and nuclear research is a direct response to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. The U.S. should have either deposed both Iran and Iraq at the same time or continued with U.N. inspections and sanctions because the destruction of one of the two, Iran or Iraq, was sure to speed the other's nuclear proliferation programs as a defense strategy against the U.S.
When considering invading Iraq, President George W. Bush's administration took a narrow look at the problems in the Persian Gulf region. Whether Bush's reasons were founded upon evidence for weapons of mass destruction, the cause of liberty, oil interests or perhaps a little bit of each reason, the Bush administration created a much more dangerous situation in the Middle East than existed prior to 2003. By ignoring Iran's hostile tendencies and eliminating Iraq, the main check on Iran's power, the Bush administration catalyzed Iran's rise to nuclear power. Iran's militarism and virulent nationalism, reinvigorated by the fall of Saddam Hussein, drove the country to increase scientific research on plutonium enrichment since 2003 and to use this rise to nuclear capabilities as a symbol of Iranian power. This behavior arises from Iran's fear that it would be next on the United State's list of countries that need a regime change, and it has the potential to create a mini-Cold War between Iran, Israel and the United States. The theocratic republic of Iran has a tendency to speak hostile words against its "American and Zionist enemies." This rhetoric has heated up since 2003 and is likely to grow even more vitriolic as the United States turns its attention towards buffering Iran's capabilities of making nuclear weapons.
Some of the most alarming recent news, as reported in The New York Times, is that Iran "is pursuing a far more sophisticated way of making atomic fuel," which could speed its path to developing a nuclear weapon. This news comes from Thursday, when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad bragged that Iran is conducting research on the P-2 centrifuge, which could significantly increase Iran's nuclear power production capabilities. These centrifuges are machines that spin very quickly to enrich uranium 235, which can provide power to nuclear reactors or to an atomic bomb. The P-2 centrifuge spins much faster and can enrich much more uranium than its less sophisticated P-1 counterpart. President Ahmadinejad's news comes after Iran claimed it abandoned work on the P-2 centrifuge technology 3 years ago. Most worrisome is that President Ahmadinejad uses Iran's nuclear capabilities to bolster Iran's self-importance. After repeatedly lying to the world about Iran's nuclear research and then publicly using the means he achieved with these lies to rally Iranian nationalism, President Ahmadinejad clearly shows he has no regard for the consequences of his actions. Experts claim Iran will be capable of producing nuclear bombs in 5-10 years. Will Iran try to use its nuclear capabilities to pressure Israeli policy in the Middle East or against U.S. interests abroad? Time can only tell, and the only sure thing is that the Bush administration created a very dangerous climate of nuclear proliferation and instability in the Middle East by invading Iraq.
Serviansky can be reached at mserviansky09@amherst.edu