Predictions For House and Senate: Election Night Diary
By Erik Schulwolf '10, Columnist
So after eight weeks of fulminating, inveighing and predicting, it's time for watching. Everything that has to be said has been said, and given that I really don't feel like writing a deep, controversial article, I'm going to detail my quick-hit thoughts as the returns come in from what could be a huge night for the Democrats. Or maybe not. If there is anything the Democrats do well, it is blowing sure victories. Whatever goes on, it is likely to be a crapshoot.

4:04 p.m. Huge controversy already on CNN about electronic ballots and voting problems in a number of districts. Why the hell don't we just go back to paper ballots? We're using them in Iraq. By the way, the Democrats now have a ready-made excuse if they tank politically this evening.

4:38 p.m. The head of the RNC, Mehlman, is evil. Just putting that out there.

4:59 p.m. Every time I see Ned Lamont on television, I'm reminded of just why I don't consider myself a Democrat. Hopefully, this gadfly will soon be off the scene for good.

5:15 p.m. First exit poll. Bad news for Democrats: Terror is the number two issue. Worse news for Republicans, though, because corruption is number one. Additionally, the Democrats have successfully nationalized this election. This could be a long night for the GOP.

5:32 p.m. Perhaps I should start writing my paper for Professor Arkes.

5:33 p.m. Nah.

6:20 p.m. I receive an urgent email, a veritable emergency both requiring my immediate attention and affording me the opportunity to avoid Val food for yet another evening. Hmmm. Wolf Blitzer, or leftover chicken at Hillel? My journalistic instincts convince me that it is my duty to determine the political pulse of Amherst College's Jewish community on this key election day.

7:11 p.m. Apparently, the election is not being shown on any of the major networks until 8 p.m., leading many commentators to shake their heads in wonderment over why these supposed news outlets would not do their civic duty by moving "House" to 7 p.m.

7:31 p.m. I begin to realize that these results aren't going to be final for a while. This is good, in that hopefully the various TV stations won't screw up their results as badly as they did in 2000 and 2004. This also isn't good, in that I may have to ask to get my deadline extended.

7:35 p.m. West Virginia senator Robert Byrd (D) has to be older than God. In addition, the Buckeyes go blue as Ted Strickland is elected Ohio's first Democratic governor in a long time. Ohio, by the way, is the worst state in the country for Republicans these days, as their sitting GOP governor is a criminal and his prospective Republican replacement (Ken Blackwell) is clinically insane. This means two things. One, that Democrat Sherrod Brown will win a Senate seat he wouldn't ordinarily win, being a liberal in a moderate state. Two, the GOP had better hope Ohioans cool down before 2008, or they will lose the presidency.

7:44 p.m. I'm now counting down the seconds…hopefully in 16 minutes, the political career of Rick Santorum (R-PA) will come to a well-deserved end.

7:47 p.m. James Carville looks like a gnome and has the coolest accent in the world.

7:58 p.m. Two minutes until 8:00, when 16 states close polls. This is when things will get interesting. This is also when my deadline expires.

8:03 p.m. James Webb (D) takes the lead over George Allen (R-Va). Allen, for the record, is an idiot who would richly deserve to lose his seat just by dint of the awful gaffes that he has made during this campaign.

8:12 p.m. Good slogan for the replacement Republican in the district of pervert Congressman Mark Foley (R-FL). Since Foley left the race so late, Joe Negron couldn't get on the ballot, so he's running under the motto "Punch Foley for Negron." Joe, even if I don't live in your district, can I punch Foley too? Please?

8:20 p.m. I'm sort of ashamed to say this as a moderate independent, but I really like Howard Dean. He's done a great job as DNC chairman and he has a realistic vision to make the Dems competitive nationwide. Yes, he's completely nuts, but you have to respect someone who says what he means and means what he says.

8:26 p.m. Sherriff Brad Ellsworth scores a key pickup for the Dems in Indiana. According to Dean, the Dems will win the House handily if they take three seats in the Hoosier State. They're on their way.

8:30 p.m. Deval Patrick (D) wins Massachusetts governor's mansion. Awesome. Patrick actually seems like a competent governor, a change from years of GOP misrule in the nation's most liberal state.

8:37 p.m. Incumbent Democrat Menendez wins in New Jersey. This ends a major headache for the Senate Democrats, who could have kissed power goodbye if the politically weak Menendez had bucked the national trend and lost to his challenger Tom Kean Jr.

8:42 p.m. I think that Chevrolet has now seared the song "This Is Out Country" into my brain. They can stop now.

8:46 p.m. The blog Politics 1 (www.Politics1.com) is now reporting that the Democrats will indeed take two Senate seats from the GOP in Pennsylvania and Ohio. This is entirely expected. Currently, the Democrats appear likely to take at least four Republican Senate seats, with Montana and Rhode Island joining the Keystone and Buckeye shifts. The Democrats now must win in Virginia and in Missouri, as Tennessee will remain in the GOP column. This also means Rick Santorum is gone, which basically makes my election night.

8:50 p.m. Well, it's deadline time. Right now, it looks like the Senate is up for grabs, while Democrats are looking extremely good for the House. Ultimately, I believe that polls will not be so incorrect as to predict a Democratic wave that will not materialize. I am convinced that the Dems will take both houses of Congress. However, the prospective new crop of conservative Democrats will find the liberal establishment very hard to deal with, and the ability of the party to change may determine whether their gains will presage a larger political realignment.

Schulwolf is a first-year. If he's wrong about what happened yesterday, feel free to laugh at him.

Issue 09, Submitted 2006-11-08 02:09:58