Once upon a time there was a mayor in the city of New York. He had been elected in 1993 on a platform of fighting crime and improving general standards of living. In the eight years of his tenure, he did manage to decrease crime rates more than 50 percent. He also got a lot of New Yorkers off of welfare and back to work. He did a great deal of good work for the city, which had been moribund under the leadership of David Dinkins, who was known for his willingness to side with criminals against his own police officers. But nobody really liked this generally competent administrator. Why? Because Rudy Giuliani was a colossal asshole. He was abrasive, rude and hopelessly arrogant, fighting political street brawls with rivals and living a tabloid-quality personal life, capped off by the classy gesture of letting his wife know that he was leaving her by means of a news conference. He's also a Yankees fan. On September 10, 2001, it looked like Rudy would fade away into private life as a competent but troubled city leader.
Then came 9/11.
Giuliani's masterful handling of the situation showed true leadership and mettle, catapulting him to national prominence. As "America's mayor," he became a rising star within the Republican Party and an instant topic of conversation as a possible presidential aspirant in 2008. Nine months before the primaries, Mayor Giuliani's presidential hopes are viable, but his course to the Republican nomination is hazardous. On the one hand, he is a proven leader with administrative credentials and a leadership record. His pro-Iraq War views play well with the neoconservatives who are likely to be a major factor in GOP primaries. On the other hand, social conservatives might pose a minor problem, given that Rudy is a well-known supporter of gun control, gay rights and abortion rights. While the mayor is backtracking on those points faster than John Kerry with a 49 percent approval rating, that wife whom he dumped on TV was his second and he's now on Numero Tres, something that doesn't exactly play well in the Bible Belt. One also wonders how the master of "hey, you lookin' at me" politics will deal with a political stage where profanity and slights against an opponent's female relations are frowned upon. However, assuming he can get past all that, how might the ex-mayor fare on the big issues?
Rudy Giuliani
Economic
Giuliani's record as a fiscal and economic conservative may ultimately reap great benefits in his quest to run the Republican primary gauntlet without pandering to the Religious Right. In New York, where the bureaucracy was famously bloated, Giuliani cut the government's size by 20 percent while turning a $2.3 billion budget deficit into an almost equally large surplus. From his experiences as a tax cutter in New York, Giuliani has developed a firm belief in supply-side economics, because-according to his web site-they work. Right. Next he's going to tell us that victory in Iraq is still a distinct possibility.
Foreign
Actually, that is exactly what Rudy believes. Giuliani considers the Iraq War fundamentally important to the larger campaign against terrorism, and opposes any effort to set an artificial timetable for withdrawal. While Mayor Giuliani's fears that an American retreat might lead to larger regional conflict could be well-founded, his lack of an Iraq policy other than "support our troops" is mildly worrisome. Maybe he doesn't think that Iraq is really that dangerous, compared to New York. (In the Brawnx, Al-Sadr would get mugged in five seconds.) On non-Iraq issues, Mayor Giuliani is a major supporter of Israel and believes that "the United States will win the War on Terror." This is in stark contrast to the Vegas odds, which are currently 1.5:1 in favor of the terrorists.
Social Issues
On fiscal and international matters, Mayor Giuliani is very much in line with the Republican Party. Social issues, though, are a whole different ballgame. Unlike the fine Christians of Iowa, South Carolina and other early primary states, Giuliani is a supporter of a woman's right to choose, domestic partnerships for gays and other corrupt by-products of urban immorality. As the feisty, defiant former mayor, Rudy has taken the brave and honorable course of backtracking on almost all of these issues. He supports domestic partnerships, but marriage is between a man and a woman. Abortion is okay, but Rudy will appoint strict constructionist (read: pro-life) judges to the Supreme Court. In fact, the only issues where flip-flops haven't been in order have been crime and education, where his tough-on-criminals and pro-accountability views are well-in-line with most of the GOP.
Charisma/Intangibles/Verdict
Looking at Mayor Giuliani's platform, one notices that its salient feature is its nonexistence. Giuliani is a candidate hoping to win almost solely on his record and reputation, not on substantive issues. His campaign so far has been a series of photo-ops and carefully scripted press conferences in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early primary states, in which the candidate talks about leadership and not much else. Ultimately, though, this will not be enough. Rudy will have to declare certain of his core political principles for public scrutiny and will have to deal with harsh criticism from Republican opponents. At that point, we will determine whether 2008's Giuliani is the inspiring figure of September 2001, or the local pol with the nasty streak of the 1990s. If Rudy can rise to the challenge (unlikely), or if the Republican field proves very weak (more likely), then Rudy will be able to return to his home in the political center in a winnable race against the Democratic nominee. More likely, we're in for an epic, Howard Dean-esque flameout in the primaries.