The rise of Medvedev to the presidency represents a unique case in Russian history because his predecessor, Putin, remains alive. Lenin, Stalin, Brezhnev and Andropov—not to mention most of the czars—conveniently died before they could breathe down the necks of the men who succeeded them. Putin, by contrast, is still quite as powerful as Russia’s next prime minister, especially given the fact that he essentially placed Medvedev in power, and retains almost cult-like popularity. His enduring influence means that he could be either a massive help or a huge burden to his successor, depending on how much leeway he gives Medvedev, and how tenaciously the new leader asserts his independence. Putin will be either a gracious mentor to Medvedev, or an obstacle to the latter’s attempts to steer a new course for Russia in the world.
Throughout the last decade, Putin earned the respect of the Russian people as a ruthless but proficient leader in the nation’s attempt to rebuild itself from the economic ravages of communism and the problems of separatism. In the process, he did away with the democrats and business oligarchs, and stifled the independent news media. Simultaneously, utilizing brutal methods, he restored some semblance of order to the breakaway province of Chechnya, something his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, failed to do. Beyond Chechnya, Putin used his old secret police contacts to aid him in accomplishing his goals and has brought a secretive and somewhat Slavophilic mind set to the Kremlin. He has restored much of the old Soviet authoritarianism, and focused on an aggressive foreign policy, to the detriment of the gargantuan task of modernizing. Yet, overall, Putin has proved himself to be an agent of progress. Unlike in the USSR, Russian citizens today enjoy a wide range of freedoms, including a wide latitude of privacy rights. Additionally, with high oil prices has come prosperity. Today, Russia is chock full of casinos, restaurants and bookstores, frequented by Russians with money to spend.
But it is up to Medvedev, whom we know very little about, to deal with the countless things Putin has left undone. Drunkenness, murder and suicide are rampant among Russia’s shrinking population and corruption spreads like a plague within the Russian parliament. Industry and agriculture remain unproductive and the current state of the nation’s health care is strikingly underdeveloped. One cannot help but feel sorry for the man who will be responsible for dealing with these problems.
In foreign affairs, Medvedev will have to seek his rapprochement with the West while placating Putin’s nationalism. Currently, the Kremlin’s vehement opposition to Kosovo’s independence keeps Russo-American relations tense. Medvedev has argued that the two nations share values and that cooperation is possible, but he must continue to contend with the likelihood of Putin’s influential and vociferous demands that Russia continue his uncompromising foreign attitude. Medvedev’s success in modernizing Russia and improving relations with the rest of the world depends on whether the old Czar Putin will be willing to lay down his weapons, and whether the young heir is willing to clash with his predecessor if he does not.
The U.S. can also do much towards improving relations with Russia and simplifying Medvedev’s situation. For example, the U.S. government can announce that it is open to the idea of negotiating on the placement of missile interceptor stations in the Czech Republic and Poland, which Russia considers a threat. The U.S. can also extend the START-I agreement, the existing arms control regime, to demonstrate Washington’s commitment to reducing weaponry. There are other options for the U.S. government to consider, if it ends its international favoritism. This manifests itself in American support for Kosovo’s independence from Serbia and not that of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia, as well as its coupling of praise for Pakistan’s Musharraf with criticism for Putin. Medvedev faces the strenuous task of continuing post-Soviet rebuilding while dealing with Putin’s conservatism; he can only hope that the U.S. will show him some courtesy in the coming years.