Within the last two weeks, the world community has had its focus guided to a conflict that has been long-forgotten. On March 10, in Lhasa, Tibet, a local and peaceful demonstration commemorating the 1959 uprising against China was disrupted by forces of the People’s Republic of China. This event set off a series of riots and protests that have left Lhasa in tatters and relations between Tibetans and their Chinese rulers in a state of renewed tension. The Chinese government’s policy regarding these events was to prevent any foreign news correspondents from accessing the area. The government also encouraged online news reports of the purported brutality of the local Tibetan population against their Han Chinese neighbors and accused foreign news agencies of having an anti-Chinese bias.

The shock of the world community in reaction to this event has been palpable. Protests have been held in many countries in support of Tibet, and many international organizations, including the U.N., have made declarations calling for restraint on the part of the Chinese. These declarations and shows of international sympathy, while worthwhile, miss the point. The state of affairs concerning China and Tibet has been in the same tenuous equilibrium since China invaded Tibet in the 1950s. In its responses to Chinese action there, the international community never fails to look feeble, given that after 50 years of heartfelt protest, no real change has come to pass in the condition of Tibet.

The timing of these events, however, opens the door for some level of change. This summer, China is scheduled to host the Olympics in its capital city of Beijing. This is a tremendous step forward for the People’s Republic of China in showing the world that it, too, is an advanced nation that can be displayed as a major world power. The crisis in Tibet, coming fewer than six months before the opening ceremonies, presents a very tricky problem for the Chinese regime. With world recognition and prominence at stake, the Chinese government cannot afford a large scale act of repression. But, it seems to have no way to deal with these Tibetan rebels, other than through brute force and media censorship.

China is thus left with a decision to make before the Olympics. It can continue its former methods and keep the censorship and brutality strong. This would guarantee a continuation of the communist regime’s control over Tibet and other sources of domestic opposition. However, failing to change would display for the world that China, contrary to its claims, is making little progress towards becoming a modern and respectable nation. This would damage Chinese prestige and the nation’s diplomatic ties.

The other option for China would be an unprecedented deal worked out between the People’s Republic and the leaders of the Tibetan community in exile. Recently, a group of Chinese intellectuals signed a petition begging the heads of the People’s Republic to begin direct negotiations with the Dali Lama in his Indian exile. This group claims that by negotiating with the Tibetans, China could work out a deal that would sustain the peace for the Olympics, without forcing the government to make a large number of concessions. The intellectuals assert that such negotiations would not lead to events spiraling out of control, as occurred with the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. This kind of deal would show the world that China is moving towards a more liberal and modern form of government. It could combine with the Olympics to boost Chinese prestige to unprecedented levels. Unfortunately for both the Tibetans and the Chinese, this solution seems unlikely. Before the Olympics, we may well see more suppression and destruction in Tibet and China, complete with heartfelt but ineffectual international criticism. If the People’s Republic reverts to its normal behavior, it will prove that some countries never change, and innocents pay the price.