The following is not pretty; it is not uplifting; it is not what you were hoping that the last issue of The Student would offer as a send-off for your graduation or your summer break. But it may be the most important article you read this year. Or while at Amherst. Big statement from someone who doesn’t write much, and certainly not like the pros around here who can write. I just happened to see a few things in the last few days, a few things that tell a profound story. Our future is unfolding around us. We can see it right here in Amherst. If enough of us see it, together we can do something about it.

So what did I see? Two news articles and two talks, one by Richard Heinberg, author of “Peak Everything” and one by our congressman, John Olver. Connecting the dots reveals a vivid image: warnings of future economic peril are manifest in today’s newspapers, while our government is not able to do anything to prepare for that future.

“Peak Everything” is shorthand for the extrapolation of the theory of peak oil (theory just like global warming is only a theory). To be blunt, this is the most important socio-economic issue of our time. Peak oil refers to the historical maximum rate of global oil extraction, a growth curve that has shot up since the 1950s but has run into the reality that resources are finite, and now that curve has peaked. Because our society is so utterly dependent on cheap oil, everything is dramatically affected by rising energy costs. And it is not just oil that will be peaking soon: natural gas, critical rare minerals essential for solar panels, coal (maybe 15 years out but hardly reason to celebrate), uranium (40 year perhaps) and even water.

Heinberg, speaking to a packed house at Hampshire College, methodically strolled through well-footnoted evidence, demonstrating that “peak everything” is not an issue of the distant future. It is essentially here now. Studies indicate that peak oil is right now—that’s the peak for all time—and peak total fossil fuel extraction will occur not in a matter of decades, but in a matter of years. Ouch.

Monday’s New York Times also tells us that it’s here, that “the outlook for oil supplies signals a period of unprecedented scarcity,” and later noting that Mexico’s exports to the U.S. would likely end completely within five years. Bloomberg today predicts oil at $200 per barrel by the end of the year! Welcome to the future.

Heinberg doesn’t offer any solutions; his job, he says, is to sound the alarm. Finding solutions is the work of our government, right? Aggressively and expertly managed, a shift to a post-fossil fuel world is possible (and critical). This will not be without economic contraction and declining standards of living, but the supremely worthy project of civilization can continue and evolve. Other far grimmer scenarios are also possible, but let’s not go there.

So what is our government doing? Congressman Olver is clearly frustrated. During his talk to a handful of students and staff, I asked how he, as a member of the House Appropriations Committee and chair of the Transportation and Housing Subcommittee, co-chair of the Climate Change Caucus and with his considerable intellect and wisdom gained from 17 years in office, can best use his power to convince others of the urgency of the issues we are facing from resource depletion.

His reaction was stunning: he grew very quiet and went inside for a moment, deeply furrowing his brow. Eventually he started, admitting “This is a big one. We haven’t even started to take this on.” He also said that our current government faces “immense inertia” on the issue.

I’m a big fan of Olver, but to see this reaction from arguably one of the top few thousand most influential people on the planet was truly frightening. He’s pushing hard on many fronts, but the herculean work required to effect a controlled shift to a post-carbon world is not something that our government is actively pursuing.

In the context of rapidly accumulating evidence of the magnitude of likely oncoming problems—the very near term horizon of the problems and the slowly emerging societal awareness of these problems—hearing that a senior leader of our government is not able to make any meaningful progress is, in my opinion, stunningly newsworthy and deeply disturbing.

So was this one of the most important articles you’ve read? Thankfully here in the Five College community, we are shown the dots and can draw the lines between them. This is a rare privilege with associated responsibilities. This article is important only if you take it in, do your own research, freak out as is entirely appropriate, and then get to work creating solutions.