Both presidential candidates went into last Wednesday’s debate with the public demanding something better. After two relatively lackluster performances that essentially rehashed stump talking points, people were hungering for a more substantive discussion. At the very least, Senators Barack Obama and John McCain were expected to spout off something different from the shallow aphorisms that tied neither candidate to specifics. This is, after all, a time when Americans are desperately searching for a strong leader with a clear plan to deal with their frightening economic prospects.

Realistically, this debate was far more important for McCain than for Obama. Lagging in the polls nationally and with polls projecting a double-digit McCain defeat in the typical red-state strongholds of Virginia and North Carolina, McCain needed to project presidential superiority on the stage in the final debate. He needed to drag every single one of Obama’s skeletons kicking and screaming out of the closet. McCain had to force a gaffe or outburst that demonstrated to the American people that Obama is not only unable to command the nation in this hour of crisis but also, as Governor Palin put it, is “not a man who sees America as you see America and as I see America.”

In other words, he needed a perfect debate. What McCain got was far from perfect, but undeniably an improved performance. He began impressively strong. He was aggressive but not belligerent, and in the first 30 minutes, he dominated. He went for broke and brought in ACORN, the organization currently accused of voter fraud, which has allegedly been linked to Obama. He harped on the Bill Ayers “palling around with terrorists” chord. McCain even managed to deliver arguably the best line of the night: “Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.” McCain proved considerably more articulate than in previous debates, ridding his speech of some of his more annoying tics. Whoever’s been coaching McCain deserves commendation—that irritating two-word phrase “my friends” has practically disappeared from his vocabulary.

Somewhere near the halfway point of the debate, the tide shifted. Obama decided to take a harder tone. When confronted by McCain on the issue of Bill Ayers, the “old washed up terrorist,” and his ties to ACORN, Obama calmly, forcefully and definitively cleared up the points. McCain was left with little more than repeating the story of Joe the Plumber (whose name isn’t really Joe, who isn’t a licensed plumber, and who actually would receive a tax cut under Obama’s plan) for the rest of the night. From that point on, McCain was on the ropes and Obama, again, controlled the conversation. Instapolls by CBS and CNN showed a narrow Obama victory, but a victory nonetheless. McCain failed to knock Obama out, and that’s what will kill the Republican ticket’s chances. At this point, anything that doesn’t radically transform the nature of the campaign will favor Obama. McCain’s best bet is to shift the focus to character-based issues, but the danger in that is alienating independent voters who respond poorly to negative campaigning.

McCain straddles both the aggressor and the underdog roles. However, it’s difficult to simultaneously keep up underdog sympathy among voters while viciously attacking his opponent on character issues. Unfortunately for McCain, that’s precisely the delicate balance he has to strike. On the important issues, his position is hopeless. Earlier this month, one top McCain aide predicted flatly that “if we talk about the economy, we’ll lose.” This honest assessment essentially nails down the McCain campaign’s position. Change the discussion to a battle they can conceivably win, (i.e. character issues), and McCain gets panned, correctly, for evading the issues. But compete on the economy and he surrenders the election to Obama. Worse still, the McCain campaign hasn’t hit on any easily digestible narratives, as the Republicans did in 2004 with “John Kerry the flip-flopper.” Palin says one thing and McCain says another. A fragmented, decentralized central message continues to cripple the Republicans.

Despite an admirable debate showing, his best of the the three and the one where he most riled Obama, McCain’s performance was not perfect. This, however, does not quite spell the end for his presidential hopes. The unfortunate truth is that the third debate has historically been far less influential than the first two. The McCain campaign could possibly inject a new, central message into the campaign narrative in the next couple of weeks that will crest just as Nov. 4 rolls around. There also remains the danger that Obama has peaked too early.

Still, with the polls leaning heavily towards Obama, McCain is scrambling. A solid debate for him simply wasn’t enough. It’s the 11th hour and McCain can’t seem to catch a break.