The Israeli government succeeded in killing radical high-ranking members of Hamas and reducing rocket fire. However, the collateral damage accompanying this operation has been staggeringly horrific. Over 1,300 Gazans have been killed with reports of 670 civilian deaths. On the Israeli side, 13 have died, including three civilians, and many have been treated for shock caused by the rocket attacks. The military operation has ended with an uneasy cease-fire, an Israeli withdrawal and the promise of a forthcoming comprehensive truce.
This operation has unleashed a storm of criticism against both sides. Hamas is being condemned as a reckless organization that instigated a conflict with a major regional power and put innocents on both sides under threat. Israel has been accused of war crimes because of the disproportionate amount of force it has used and incidents that led to the death or injury of innocent people. Israel and Hamas both claim that their side has emerged from this battle victorious and are trying to win international sympathy to vilify their enemy.
Israel has more credibility in the former attempt. A massive amount of Hamas militants have been killed, and only a handful of Israeli soldiers. Also, the cease-fire to which Israel has agreed comes with international guarantees that the smuggling of arms to Hamas will be opposed and the economic isolation of Hamas will continue. There is little chance that Hamas will dare to launch another such attack on Israel’s southern region for some time. On the other hand, Hamas is winning the battle for public opinion. The international news, though barred from entering Gaza, has portrayed Israel as inhumane and brutal. Several countries have broken off formal relations with Israel over this conflict, and the protests and demonstrations in the Arab world show the solidarity forming between the Arab street and Hamas.
The overwhelming question is whether Israel pursued the right course of action in moving against Hamas. The answer to this will depend on what follows in the long run. There is evidence that this operation has broken the confidence of Palestinians who believe in a two-state solution. If this operation has done anything, it has proven that Israel will only be secure as the Palestinian people will let it, so the damage to their confidence is concerning. Many people who believe that this operation was a failure say that these actions have propped up Hamas as a heroic organization, and that it is a matter of time before Fatah loses control of the West Bank. However, there are signs that indicate otherwise.
During this operation, the West Bank, to the surprise of many, remained calm. Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad, while protesting the operation, have kept their populace and militants in check. Officials in the Israeli military who have long expressed doubt about the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatus have admitted that a tremendous amount of progress has taken place. If this is portrayed in the right way, it could make skeptical Israelis believe that they have a partner for peace who can deliver on security guarantees.
Also, the Palestinian people, by all accounts, blame Hamas for this crisis. If Israel begins to take comprehensive steps to improve the living conditions in the West Bank and begin withdrawing from settlements, then Abbas and the Fatah party can appear as strong leaders who can deliver the prosperity and peace that the Palestinian people have long craved. This will lead to a moderation of the Palestinian national movement and will make peace a possibility.
The success or failure of this operation will depend on which of these two possibilities occurs. If Israel has permanently alienated the Palestinian public and peace efforts cannot be revived, then the operation was a failure. If this operation, despite its tragic loss of life, isolates Hamas and is followed by comprehensive steps that will bolster Abbas and create a realistic chance of peace, then the operation will be considered a success. As is often the case in the Middle East, only the ends will clarify the efficacy of the means.