An election as imperfect as the one held a few weeks ago is indeed a cause for concern, as is an undeniably reinvigorated Taliban insurgency. On the other hand, these concerns must not obscure the positive consequences of the initial United States-led invasion and the continued presence of coalition forces in Afghanistan today.
To begin with, the Taliban remains vastly unpopular with the majority of Afghanis. Although much time is devoted to reporting on an increasingly powerful Taliban presence, there is a limit to what the Taliban can accomplish when, according to an ABC/BBC/ARD poll, only 6 percent of the population supports some or all of the their objectives. This statistic belies the notion that the people of Afghanistan are not ready for democracy, or are backward-looking individuals who feel much the same way now as they did during the Soviet invasion of the 80’s.
Reinforcing this picture, the favorability ratings commanded by the United States and our North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies hover around 60 percent, if Internation Republican Institute polls are to be believed. Incidentally, that would make the United States more popular in the eyes of the Afghan population than President Obama is in the eyes of the American population. Nearly the same percentage of Afghanis say that they are optimistic about their future.
Frankly, that optimism may be well-founded, if current trends continue. The gross domestic product, excluding opium sales and other illegal sectors, reached a peak of 10 percent annual growth, still managing 7 percent in 2008, a year that saw other nations struggling through economic crises. The number of children who attend school has multiplied by a factor of seven since 2001, from one million students to seven million (out of a population of between 27 and 34 million people).
Returning to the elections, despite widespread disruption by insurgents, very few civilians lost their lives. This was a testament to the bravery and commitment of the Afghan police force, which received praise from the international observers attached to their regiments. The campaign itself featured vigorous debate, serious opposition, a focus on the issues and balanced coverage by prospering private media.
Finally, amidst the fanfare of President Obama’s first days in the Oval Office, his administration and the United States as a nation made a new commitment to increased troop levels, which in turn has allowed coalition forces to begin seriously expanding the zones that are free and safe from Taliban fundamentalism and insurgency. The new operations in Helmand province are perhaps the best examples of this bolstered approach. To contemplate a 180-degree turn now, after making a commitment to the Afghanis living in now-secured towns and villages, attempting to convince them to cooperate, and promising our continued presence and support against any potential return of the Taliban, would not only squander what we have achieved; it would seem highly disingenuous and destroy any notion that we as a nation are capable of implementing and sticking with a strategy beyond even a few months.
Thanks to Mr. O’Hanion of the Brookings Institution and Mr. Riedel, chair of the President’s review committee on Afghanistan and Pakistan for the factual and statistical evidence contained in this article.