As is the case in both leagues, the American League race has already been pared down significantly. Even before the season began, six teams-Anaheim, Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay-could be eliminated from playoff contention. While anything can happen, I would be very surprised to see any of these teams in the postseason.
In the AL East it will be a three-team race for the division title. New York, Boston and Toronto will all be in the race, but as much as it pains me say so, I think that the Yankees will win the division. The Yankees' starting pitching, barring any serious injury to one of their top four starters, have the best pitching in baseball. The Red Sox will finish in second place, and they will win the wild card. Even though questions about their pitching persist, and they won't have Nomar Garciaparra until the All-Star break, the Sox have enough to make it back to the playoffs. The Blue Jays offense is outstanding, but with their pitching they won't be able to compete with either the Yankees or the Sox.
In the AL Central there are really only two teams that will compete, Cleveland and Chicago. After missing the playoffs last year and being surprised by the White Sox, the Indians will go back to the playoffs. Last year their pitching staff was decimated by injuries, but this season they should have a solid rotation and their offense will again be formidable. The White Sox have another great offense, and they have a good pitching staff, but not everything will fall together for them this year.
The West will be the closest of the three divisions. Oakland, Seattle and Texas will contend for the title, and the A's will emerge out of this division. After almost beating the Yankees in the playoffs last year, the A's return with a better team. The Mariners will be driven by their pitching and the Rangers by their hitting, giving us a great chance to see if teams win with pitching and defense or with offense. I still think that pitching and defense is more important, so the Mariners will finish second in the division.
AL MVP: Juan Gonzalez, Cleveland Indians
After suffering through a disappointing season last year, Gonzalez will bounce back this season. Last year Gonzalez suffered through back injuries and had his worst season in years. This year he is in a much better situation, and he seems to be enjoying playing the game again. This is bad news for his opponents because-when interested and healthy-Gonzalez is one of the best hitters in the game.
Runners Up: Carlos Delgado, Toronto Blue Jays; Pedro Martinez, Boston Red Sox; Jason Giambi, Oakland A's; Alex Rodriguez, Texas Rangers; Magglio Ordonez, Chicago White Sox.
AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez, Red Sox.
As usual, Pedro will take the Cy Young. He is already off to a tremendous start, and I don't expect anything less than that as the season progresses. AL batters have just been dominated by Martinez, and this season won't be any different.
Runners Up: Mike Mussina, Yankees; Roger Clemens, New York Yankees; Tim Hudson, Oakland A's; Bartolo Colon, Cleveland Indians.
AL Rookie of the Year: Jose Ortiz, Oakland A's.
Ortiz won the triple crown last year in the Pacific Coast League, and he won the A's second base job out of spring training. Ortiz will benefit from being in the Oakland lineup and he should have plenty of opportunities to produce for them.
Runners Up: Paxton Crawford, Boston Red Sox; C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians; Alfonso Soriano, New York Yankees; Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners.
National League Roundup
This year we might see some changes in the NL. After years of eastern dominance, the balance of power could swing over to the west this season.
In the East it is again a two-team race. The Braves and Mets are the only teams that will contend for the division title. The Braves will have to replace John Smoltz in their pitching rotation, but they should still be a 90-win team. The Mets don't seem to be as strong as last year, when they made the World Series, but there is always the possibility that they will make a big midseason move to bolster their team. I think the Braves are finally due for a disappointing regular season, and the Mets will take advantage this year and win the division.
The Central is much less clear-cut. Pittsburgh and Chicago are out of the playoff race right off the bat, but the top of the division is much tougher to determine. The Cardinals, Astros and Reds all have high hopes for the postseason. The division will ultimately come down to St. Louis and Houston, with the Astros pulling it out. Last year the Astros had a horrible season, and this year they will return to form. St. Louis desperately needs Rick Ankiel to come through and Mark McGwire to be healthy for a full season, but I have doubts about either of those events occurring.
The West is the best division in the NL. San Fransisco had a great season last year to win the division, but the other teams stumbled. This year I expect there to be much more even play across the division. The Giants need to replace the bat of Ellis Burks in their lineup, but I don't think that will happen. Arizona will be very good because of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, but their team is old and will likely fall prey to the injury bug. Los Angeles and Colorado will battle for the division title, but behind completely different strategies. The Dodgers have a great starting rotation while the Rockies will rely on their offense, and again, I think pitching will beat offense, with the Dodgers coming out on top.
The wild card will be very complicated. The West might be so good that they end up beating each other too often, opening up the spot for a team from a weaker division. If this happens, the Braves will take the wild card, but otherwise the Rockies will make the playoffs.
NL MVP: Todd Helton, Rockies.
Last year Helton had one of the greatest offensive seasons in the history of baseball. Sure, he was helped by Coors Field, but even on the road he dominated. He is only in his fourth year in the majors, and he will continue to get better this year. He is surrounded by great offensive players, especially with the return of Larry Walker, and his numbers will be great again this year.
Runners Up: Mike Piazza, New York Mets; Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves; Jeff Bagwell, Houston Astros; Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal Expos; Sammy Sosa, Chicago Cubs.
NL Cy Young: Kevin Brown, Dodgers.
For years Brown has had "the best stuff in baseball," and he has always been one of the most competitive pitchers in the game. This year he started the season injured, but he will rebound. Last year he led the NL in ERA, and he can easily do that again. Johnson will be his biggest competitor, but Brown will win the award.
Runners Up: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks; Chan Ho Park, Dodgers; Ryan Dempster, Florida Marlins; Al Leiter, New York Mets; Greg Maddux, Atlanta Braves.
NL Rookie of the Year: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, New York Mets.
Shinjo is a rookie only in the loosest sense of the word. He was a professional in Japan, and he has the skill to be a major contributor for the Mets. He may not even be the best Japanese rookie in the majors, but in a weak NL crop this year, he may come out on top.
Runners Up: Ben Sheets, Milwaukee Brewers; Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies; Wes Helms, Atlanta Braves.
The Final Picture
In the AL the A's will beat the Yankees and the Red Sox will continue their postseason mastery of the Indians in the divisional series. In the ALCS the Red Sox will beat the A's in seven games, with Pedro being the difference.
The NL will feature matchups between the Rockies and Astros, and the Dodgers and Mets. The Dodgers and Astros will advance, with the Dodgers prevailing in the NLCS.
In the World Series it will be a pitching battle, but Boston's Cy Young winner will prevail over LA's Cy Young award winner. The Red Sox offense, with Garciaparra healthy and Ramirez behind him, will be good enough to win the series, and their pitching behind Pedro will be good enough. The Dodgers' offense will end up being their downfall, but their pitching will make the series close.