Since my preseason predictions could not have been farther from the truth-if you remember, I naively picked the Red Sox and Dodgers to make the World Series-I now feel obligated to attempt to redeem myself with an up-to-date analysis of the World Series.
The Diamondbacks have bulled their way through the postseason behind their two aces, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. Schilling is a prime-time performer and has proven again and again in the postseason. He has thrown three complete games in as many starts in this year's postseason, and dating back to the 1993 World Series he has thrown four straight complete games in the postseason.
Johnson is a different story, but this postseason he has dominated as well. After losing his first start this year, against the Cardinals in the Division Series, Johnson had lost seven straight postseason starts, and his postseason record was an abysmal 2-7. Since then, he has turned it around. After that initial loss he has won two straight games, and he is still a dominating pitcher. I am not generally a big believer in the ability of certain players to turn it on or choke on a consistent basis in the postseason-especially a player of Johnson's caliber-and he turned around his postseason fortunes in the NLCS.
The D-Backs bullpen is questionable. Other than Byung-Hyung Kim, who is basically unhittable when he is on, they don't have many other options for late inning help. They will have to rely on Schilling and Johnson, and whoever else starts in the series, to make it late into games.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks are not a particularly threatening team. Although Luis Gonzalez had an unbelievable season at the plate, he cannot carry the team alone in the postseason, and he hasn't so far. He has struggled a bit at the plate, batting only .237 with two home runs and five RBI in 10 postseason games.
Behind Gonzalez, the D-Backs have very little offensive punch. The aging team has scored only 32 runs in their 10 postseason games, 21 in nine games if you discount their 11-run outburst in game three of the NLCS. Matt Williams, Steve Finley, Tony Womack and Mark Grace are the offensive leaders of this team, and that says a lot. Arizona will have trouble scoring runs for their dominating starting pitching.
The Yankees have a more balanced team heading into the World Series. It will be interesting to see if the Yankees combination of pitching, defense and offense is enough to trump the D-Backs' two aces.
The Yankees' pitching staff is much deeper than that of the D-Backs. At the top of the staff the Yankees have four quality starters. Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Orlando Hernandez make up the best staff of any of the teams that qualified for postseason play this year. Pettitte and Hernandez have the best track records in the postseason, but no team should discount the abilities of either Clemens or Mussina when a game is on the line.
At the bottom of the pitching staff the Yankees are just as dominating. Closer Mariano Rivera has been the best reliever in the postseason over the last 20 years. Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza provide a solid lefty-righty combination to come out of the bullpen for situational appearances, and also for extended relief appearances.
The only weakness of the Yankees staff may be their middle relief. If any of the starters gets yanked early, the Yankees really have no options that they are comfortable using. Joe Torre has not shown confidence in Jay Witasick or Mark Wohlers, both midseason acquisitions to shore up the long relief, and it doesn't appear that he is ready to hand them the ball in a crucial situation.
The Yankees offense has picked it up as of late. While Derek Jeter has continued to struggle at the plate, other members of the Yankees have picked up the slack. Bernie Williams has homered in three straight games, Paul O'Neill has battled through a foot injury and contributed offensively, and Tino Martinez, Chuck Knoblauch and Alfonso Soriano have played important roles in the Yankees' success.
When these two teams meet, I think that the Yankees will have the upper hand. Schilling and Johnson have carried the D-Backs through two postseason series so far, and they are scheduled to pitch five of the seven World Series contests. Unfortunately, the two aces might have to pitch shutouts every night, because the D-Backs' offense is that anemic. If the Yankees can scratch together a minimal number of runs-and they have shown the ability to produce runs through sacrifices and hit and runs-against the D-Backs' big two, which they should be able to do, then they will win their fourth straight World Series.
It pains me to say this, but the Yankees have a team that is built for the postseason. Every year they seem to be vulnerable coming into the playoffs, but they find a way to win, through miraculous plays and through the lucky bounces of the ball that always seem to go their way.
NFL: No Frickin' Logic
If at the beginning of the season I had told you that the Chicago Bears would be in the NFC Central lead, that Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Cincinnatti would be the top three teams in the AFC Central, and that the Patriots would have a better record that the Colts, would you have believed me? I sure wouldn't have.
Why has the NFL been so unpredictable this year? First off, there have been a number of key injuries that have adversely affected good teams. Eddie George has been hampered by a foot injury, and when Ed McCaffrey broke his leg, the Broncos lost much of their offensive firepower.
Second, a few of the top defenses from the last couple of years have underachieved this season. The Ravens, after having the best season in the history of the NFL last year, have disappointed this year, and the Ravens' record has suffered. Tampa Bay has also relied heavily on their defense, and since they have struggled this season, their record reflects that.
In addition, there have been a number of rookies, both head coaches and players, that have had a major impact. Butch Davis, the head coach of the Cleveland Browns, has brought his University of Miami swagger to Cleveland, and the Browns are much better than they have ever been. LaDainian Tomlinson has been one of the big reasons for the Chargers' success this year, and he has shown that he was worthy of the fifth overall selection in this year's draft.
The NFL is the most unpredicatable of the four major sports leagues. Because of the large risk of injuries in the NFL, every year preseason predictions are thrown off. Eventually, team depth is what makes a season productive. Tom Brady, the Patriots backup quarterback, has stepped in admirably for Drew Bledsoe, and Trung Candidate has filled in for Marshall Faulk with a large amount of success. Without backups like these, a team cannot survive the rigors of an NFL season.
Should I stay or should I go?
Right now Jason Giambi faces a major decision. After another MVP-caliber season, Giambi is a free agent. His contract talks stalled in spring training with the A's, when the club wouldn't give him a no-trade clause in the contract, and he is now free to test the open market.
And he will be easily enticed by some of the offers he receives. George Steinbrenner is allegedly infatuated with Giambi, and he has the money to give Giambi everything that he wants. The A's six-year, $90 million dollar offer could look like peanuts when Steinbrenner is done.
But Giambi seems to have bigger considerations. The A's have the potential of being one of the best teams in the game in the near future, and Giambi is their undeniable leader. The A's have acquiesced to his demands and are now offering a no-trade clause, but it may be too little too late. Their inaction in spring training may have lost them the ability to sign Giambi at a hometown discount, and he will probably be too expensive for the A's to afford. Whatever Giambi's decision, he will be a very rich man by next year.