1. Heat: The Miami roster is as caustic as any in the league and could combust at any moment. If in the off-season you're looking to add team players with their heads screwed on straight, then acquiring Jason Williams and Antoine Walker isn't the way to go. After a brilliant 2004-05 campaign in which the Heat rolled over the rest of the East only to fall one game shy of the Finals, why did Riley feel the need to shake things up and dispense with efficient swingman Eddie Jones and three-point master Damon Jones? Shaq says he can manage chemistry and keep the new guys in line. I'm not so sure. So, why is Miami still on top? Two words: Dwyane Wade. His first step is second to none, his court vision is superb, and he can knock down 20-footers off screens all day. If Shaq shows up slim, healthy and motivated, if Walker limits his three-point chucks and if Williams plays under control, this team could run away with the conference again.
2. Pistons: There is no reason Detroit can't win the East. The Wallace-Rip-Prince-Billups-Rasheed core is intact, and the defensive machine that Larry Brown generated will not disappear with his departure to New York. Last year the Pistons came within a game of repeating as champs. This team will not accept a significant drop in the East ranks. And while Larry Brown is tough to replace, Flip Saunders isn't too bad in his own right.
3. Nets: I know. I'm a homer. But hear me out. After giving up Kenyon Martin and starting last season 4-12 with a bunch of retreads, the Nets made a miraculous playoff push after the midseason trade for Vince Carter. And all this while Richard Jefferson sat out the second half of the year. The Nets added interior toughness in Marc Jackson, a potentially stalwart backup PG in Jeff McInnis and improved outside shooting in Lamond Murray and Scott Padgett. Don't forget that Nenad Krstic emerged as one of the best young centers in the league last season. Depending upon whether Jason Kidd has something left in his 32-year-old knees and whether Carter's isolation and slow-down game complements Jefferson's slashing transition-driven game, the Nets can win the East. Barring significant injury, they will secure home court in the playoffs.
4. Cavaliers: The Cavs tumbled from the top of the conference to right out of the playoffs last year-a huge disappointment for LeBron's second season. But don't be fooled: the Cavs retooled over the summer and threaten to do serious damage, making them a likely candidate for most improved team in the league. Cleveland added Damon Jones, who makes a living at the three-point line, Larry Hughes, a legitimate 20-point scorer and Donyell Marshall, who can post double-double numbers under the right conditions. Not to mention the ever-mounting sense that LeBron may emerge as the league's best player sooner rather than later. Potential pitfalls: Jones is horribly one-dimensional, Marshall (6'9") tends to play like he's 6'4", and it remains to be seen how Hughes deals with inevitably reduced touches now that he shares the backcourt with the Chosen One.
5. Pacers: I'm just not feeling it. Everyone else has the Pacers in the East's top three, but why? Sure, Artest is back with a vengeance, Jermaine O'Neal is healthy, and European standout Sarunas Jasikevicius will provide solid backup minutes for Jamal Tinsley at PG. The Pacers' first-round win over Boston last year was admirable considering Artest's absence, but Indiana-even at full strength-has not beaten a good team in the playoffs in recent memory. Two years ago they reached the conference finals by beating the pre-Shaq Heat. I'll be surprised to see the Pacers make it out of the first round this year.
6. Knicks: You probably think that the ship has sailed on Stephon Marbury, and he's an incorrigible scourge who will never win. I am a long-time Steph fan, so I say give him these next few years with Larry Brown to prove you wrong. Finally he's got some talent around him. Quentin Richardson is the dynamic 6'6" shooter he's never had, and Jerome James, Eddy Curry and Antonio Davis comprise a suddenly burgeoning and sizeable frontcourt that will soften the blow from the loss of Kurt Thomas. The truth is that the Knicks were on track to make the playoffs until the second half of last season. Look for Larry Brown to have Stephon playing the most selfless, inspired ball of his career. The Knicks could crack the middle of the Eastern playoff pack.
7. Wizards: The Wiz will take a serious hit with the loss of Larry Hughes, who poured in 22.0 ppg last year and comprised the team's core with Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison. In the playoffs Miami exposed Washington's youthful ignorance of interior defense (the imposing Brendan Haywood notwithstanding), which the addition of Caron Butler may change. Chucky Atkins and Antonio Daniels are worth next to nothing.
8. Sixers: Philly rounds out the top eight principally because the bottom of the conference is weak, but also because you have to acknowledge A.I.'s perpetual ability to will any Sixers roster into or near the playoff picture. The Iverson-Webber duo flopped last year, but I say the jury's still out, if only because the sum of their individual talents is immense. Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert are formidable up front, and Kyle Korver is emerging as the best three-point shooter in the league.
Other playoff contenders: Chicago, Boston, Orlando
Not a chance: Milwaukee, Charlotte, Atlanta, Toronto
Conference Finals Prediction: Pistons over the Nets