1. Spurs: The most complete team in the league accomplished perhaps the most of any in the offseason. They added Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel-both stars at one point and both tremendously capable on offense-to the sterling Duncan-Parker-Ginobili core. There are no holes in the San Antonio roster. You want shooting off the bench? Brent Barry. First-rate defense? Bruce Bowen. The most clutch shooter currently playing? Robert Horry. And I still don't know what the Knicks were thinking when they traded Nazr Mohammed to the Spurs for essentially nothing. The only way the Spurs can be knocked from their perch is if Duncan sustains a serious injury.
2. Nuggets: Denver gave us a glimpse of the upcoming season when they tore through their schedule after George Karl took over behind the bench. Carmelo has promised that he will make the all-star team, and with Andre Miller throwing lobs to Kenyon Martin, Nene and Marcus Camby up front, the Nuggets present a young, dynamic, formidable lineup. Who else even has a shot at winning the Northwest?
3. Phoenix: Amare Stoudemire's left knee microfracture surgery has some pundits precipitously dropping the Suns off the elite map. The Suns will also miss Quentin Richardson, a three-point specialist whose game fit perfectly with Phoenix' full-throttle offense, and Joe Johnson, a 17 point per game force whom the Suns shipped to Atlanta in exchange for picks. But the additions of Kurt Thomas and Brian Grant bolster the Suns' frontcourt, which will allow Phoenix to clash with teams like San Antonio and Detroit late in the playoffs. Truthfully, the key factor is whether Steve Nash can re-establish his magic of last season with Shawn Marion on one wing and the other side empty, at least until March.
4. Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki is the sole piece remaining from the Nash-Dirk-Finley triumvirate of the old days, but a new supporting cast has taken shape in Dallas. Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse need to ease Nowitzki's scoring burden, but Terry's more important responsibility is to serve as the pure point guard Dallas has lacked since Nash left. Keith Van Horn must stay healthy and renounce his perennial softy style. Doug Christie may infuse a tinge of defensive toughness into a franchise that normally appears to care very little when the other team has the ball.
5. Sacramento: The Kings could be excellent or poor. Their new-look roster includes major offseason acquisitions Shareef Abdur-Rahim, a career 20-point scorer, and Bonzi Wells, who must prove his worth after two wasted seasons in Memphis following his display of obvious potential in Portland. Mike Bibby will give you 15 and six, and Brad Miller will control the middle. If Peja stays healthy, the Kings can reach the conference finals.
6. Memphis: Some predict that the Grizzlies will make the playoffs. I'll take it a step further in light of a few factors: 1. Dumping Jason Williams is addition by subtraction, and Damon Stoudamire will aptly fill his void. 2. Eddie Jones gives Memphis the versatile, reliable swingman Shane Battier could never be. 3. Pau Gasol will post 18 and eight. 4. Mike Miller will punish defenses for doubling down on Gasol. 5. Bobby Jackson is the tough, fearless floor leader who will keep the pieces together.
7. Houston: The Rockets have made steady strides during each of the past few years, but I do not sense the attitude or collective toughness necessary to win the playoff series. Moreover, Tracy McGrady has not yet proven that he can carry a team through mid-June. It remains to be seen whether Yao Ming's continued development eases McGrady's burden and selfish proclivities. Stromile Swift adds bulk and scoring ability in the middle, but can the Rockets beat Dallas or Sacramento-much less San Antonio-in the playoffs?
8. Golden State: The sleeper team. The Warriors are going to surprise many people and shed their identity as a perpetually poor team relegated to Western Conference oblivion. Baron Davis has been waiting five years to play alongside someone with equal talent. Jason Richardson, Golden State's 6'6" centerpiece, drops 20 with no trouble and will jump as high as Davis throws him lobs. The rest of the roster is weak, and drafting Chris Taft, the laziest player in the Big East, won't help much. But if Baron's back stops acting up, the Davis-Richardson tandem will match any duo in the league and may be enough to squeak the Warriors into the playoffs. If Golden State has deeper aspirations for the future, it needs to add another star-caliber player-preferably a big man-to round out the middle of the roster with serviceable role players.
Playoffs possible: Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota, Seattle
Not happening: Los Angeles Clippers, Portland, Utah