In the NBA, Change of the Guard Beckons
By Judd Olanoff, Neurotic New Yorker
I had a rather diverse sports spectating experience over Thanksgiving break, splitting my time among Kansas basketball's startling win over Florida, various NFL contests, a few pathetic Knicks outings, every game of the annual tour of utter hopelessness that is the Nets' Thanksgiving West Coast swing and Ohio State vs. Michigan, which ABC would have us believe is the game of the century.

Speaking of which, during Ohio State/Michigan and USC/Notre Dame, ABC advertised its broadcast as "ESPN on ABC." What exactly does "ESPN on ABC" mean? Does ABC Sports, heretofore a comparably respectable institution, suddenly consider itself incapable of carrying a major sports telecast without invoking the name of its subsidiary, which is increasingly identified by its analytic emptiness and burgeoning desire for global domination?

Change in power

In any case, now that I've filed my weekly ESPN-related grievance, on to more substantive items. The NBA, it seems quite clear, is undergoing a dramatic changing of the guard, and it should be noted that not a single so-called pundit came close to predicting it, which proves, once again, their collective uselessness. They report for duty in August, lazily pick Miami and Detroit to lead the Eastern Conference pack again, and hope that no one notices next June when their picks reveal no more expertise than a marginally educated fan possesses.

Anyway, the guard is changing radically, at least for now. The East is absolutely wide open for the first time in six years, and upstarts like Orlando are taking advantage. We may be witnessing a rare and historic realignment. If you think about it, in the post-Jordan era, for several years the Lakers, Kings and Blazers dominated, then the Nets and Spurs came on the scene, then the Mavs, Pistons an Heat rose to power. It has been a matter of years since there has been such an absence of continuity in the power dynamic from the previous season.

Miami and Detroit, both off to sluggish starts, are in more trouble than people admit. Particularly the Heat. Shaq is on the shelf for a while, but, frankly, Shaq's absence is not nearly as problematic for Miami as many suggest. He attracts defensive attention in the paint, but he drastically slows down the offense and causes it to bog down in grueling halfcourt isolation sets. Miami's real problem is its overall personnel. Walker, Mourning, Posey, Williams and Payton miraculously morphed into a potent, unified force in last year's playoffs, but this season has and will continue to reveal their true natures: generally overpaid, old, slow and inefficient. In a league that is trending toward the hybrid, up-tempo, Phoenix-inspired, small-lineup strategy, Miami represents the anachronistic, hapless throwback to the plodding style of Jordan's mid-90s NBA. I would say that Miami has no chance to repeat in the East, but it would be stupid to say that. Not because of Shaq, or even Pat Riley. Because it seems there is nothing Dwyane Wade is incapable of, including lifting up this sorry group for another postseason run.

As for the shocking new members of the NBA elite, Orlando and Utah, which is for real? Both have great coaches, terrific young point guards, excellent veteran leadership, and impressive teamwork. But Orlando, unlike Utah, boasts a clear go-to guy in Dwight Howard. Ten seconds left in a playoff game, down one or two with the ball, you can isolate Howard on the low block and expect a basket or a foul. But to whom does Utah look? Carlos Boozer, the Jazz's surging scorer, can't create his own shot. After Boozer, the Jazz possess a bunch of impressive but essentially equal pieces in Kirilenko, Harpring, Williams and Okur. Then again, the Nets in 2002 and the Pistons in 2004 both won big playoff games with lineups that stressed parity. But Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio and Cleveland all have big-time scorers built for late-game situations.

As a side note, as long as the East's current obscene ineptitude continues, Western Conference teams on the border of a playoff berth have every right to be upset. While .500 teams in the East will make the playoffs, they won't come close in the West. If the Mavs, Spurs and Suns remain elite as expected, if teams like the Lakers, Kings, Clippers and Rockets continue to improve, and if the East descends into total mediocrity, then the NBA might be forced to consider realigning the conferences.

One of the Nets' futile Thanksgiving week outings was against Phoenix. Watching Steve Nash run an offense is actually like watching an instructional video on basketball fundamentals. Not just his passing and continuous dribble. What's most amazing is his execution of the screen-roll. Mark Jackson, the Nets' TV analyst, called Nash a "scientist." I couldn't agree more with that comparison. Nash comes tight off the screen, maneuvers his way around the screener's defender, waits just long enough to assess the options that materialize, and then puts the ball exactly where it should go. These things should be fairly basic, but the fact that I was so awed shows how rare masterful screen-roll execution is in today's NBA.

I'm a baby

I rolled my ankle three weeks ago, and it still hurts today. Beforehand I thought of ankle sprains as a joke of an injury, and compared to compound fractures they still are. But now I understand that for an NBA player who relies principally on his explosiveness, a severe ankle sprain could potentially ruin half a season. Since rolling my ankle, I have watched Channing Frye, Steve Francis and Richard Jefferson all do the same. The more I think of it, Bruce Bowen, the dirty Spurs defender who makes a living out of stepping under airborne jump shooters who roll their ankles on his foot, should be punished. His defensive strategy, which he refuses to alter, consistently injures players. If he doesn't change his ways, his dangerous practice should be regarded as deliberate. In that case, he should be fined an amount equal to the compensation lost by the injured opponent.

Issue 11, Submitted 2006-11-29 04:44:38