And your Western Conference champions are ... the Dallas Mavericks. They have experience. After going to the Finals last year, they've been there, and they've done that. They win at home. Since their 0-4 start, the Mavs have gone 22-1 at American Airlines Center, the only loss coming to the East's top team, Detroit.
There's also their bench to take into account. They have depth, made up of experienced veterans like Jerry Stackhouse and Devean George, a starter on all three Lakers championship teams, as well as big man DeSagana Diop, who proved his defensive value in last year's playoff run. In addition to these quality reserves, the bench also has Avery Johnson, who, along with having one of the best voices in sports, has one of the best minds. He out-dueled Spurs coach Gregg Popovich in last year's playoffs as a first-year head coach.
But at home, a deep bench and a quality coach don't make the real case for why Dallas, and not Phoenix or even San Antonio, will come out of the West. The Reason is 7'1", has long blonde hair and an affinity for bad American pop exports. The Reason bends his knees in like he's bowlegged at the free throw line and snarls after making big plays. The Reason, ladies and gentleman, is Dirk Nowitzki.
Sure, his lackluster defense years ago led his teammates to refer to him as Irk, because he had no 'D', but he and his teammates, (especially All-Star snub Josh Howard, who is in the midst of a breakout season, giving the Mavs' lethal offense yet another weapon), proved in the postseason that they could lock down the NBA's elite teams, including the Spurs and Suns, by mixing up lineups with their deep bench to create favorable match-ups. Dirk's offense, and the versatility of his offense, makes him the second-most valuable player down the stretch in his conference (behind Kobe). Need a three? Dirk is shooting over 41 percent from behind the arc. Need a quick take to the hoop, or a trip to the stripe? Dirk flexed that muscle last year in the playoffs, showing a newfound ability to take it inside hard, drawing fouls and completing many old-fashioned three-point-plays instead of settling for his fadeaway. And when he gets to the line? Dirk's extremely reliable, hitting on over 90 percent of his attempts this year. His teammates are no slouches either, shooting a scorching 81 percent on the season.
None of this, however, proves the Mavs will beat the equally hot Suns. What does give the Mavs the edge was apparent on Dec. 28, when the teams faced off in Dallas. Tied at 99 with six seconds left, Dallas inbounded the ball to Dirk with his back to the basket about 19 feet from the hoop. In one motion, he reverse-pivoted, rose up and nailed the jumper in Shawn Marion's face with one second to play. This showed the ease with which Dirk can take, and more importantly make, a difficult shot with very little time left. Compare that to contrasted with the Suns who, without an elite scorer on the wing, ran a lob play to Amare Stoudemire. The play broke down and resulted in Stoudemire chucking up and missing a desperation three. The difference in the playoffs with two outstanding, evenly matched teams are these plays down the stretch and with Dirk on their side, the nod goes to Dallas.
Stein says:
The Suns have been ridiculously hot, winning 37 of 42 games. They are hands down basketball's most exciting team, consistently scoring over 110 points per game and featuring some of the fanciest plays and top highlights from the Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion all-star trio.
The reason for their slow 1-5 start can be directly attributed to Amare Stoudemire. One of the league's most dominant and best scoring big men, Stoudemire was recovering from a knee injury early in the year and the team had trouble adjusting to his presence, which they missed so greatly the year before. The Suns have been able to integrate him back into the offense after the early slump, helping Steve Nash in particular, as he is having an even better season than his prior two MVP years. Nash, who is averaging 19.3 ppg, 11.8 assists and is shooting 49 percent from three-point range, knows that this is the year the Suns need to win. Think of Nash's situation as the same as Peyton Manning's. Nash, who turns 33 today, knows that the window to win a championship is starting to close. In the next few years he will only lose a step, and by the time the playoffs start he should have a fully healthy squad with Stoudemire and Marion supplying plenty of support. Similar to Manning, he needs to get by his rival: not the Patriots, but his former team, which knocked him out last year, the Mavericks. Similarly again, with the Western Conference so much stronger than the East, if he can get by the Mavericks, the Suns will simply have to not choke to win the championship like the Colts did Sunday.
People will argue that the Mavericks are a better team because they won the first two meetings of the year and defeated the Suns in six games in last year's postseason. However, that was without Amare Stoudemire. Do you really think that the Mavericks would win even a game this year in a series against the Suns without one of their big three? As much as people praise Steve Nash and are quick to give him the MVP, this team cannot win a title without Stoudemire's presence. The first loss to the Mavericks came in early November, a close seven-point loss. Coming into the game, Stoudemire had only been playing 16 minutes per game-that's barely over a quarter. Since then he started playing in the mid-thirties and now has shown no trouble consistently playing 40 minutes a game. With a fully healthy Stoudemire, who has only gotten better and stronger as the year has gone on, the Mavericks would have trouble stopping him in a series. Plus his big presence will prevent Dirk, Howard, Stackhouse and Terry from getting to the hole and relying on outside shots more than they would like.
To those who say that the Suns cannot play defense and will give up too many points to teams like Dallas, read this. The Suns are 5-1 in games when they and their opponent score less than 100, meaning they can grind out the games when they struggle offensively. They are 19-8 when the give up more than 100 points. The Mavericks on the other hand are 5-6 when they give up 100 or more points. Are the Mavericks really going to hold the Suns to less than 100? Lastly, the Suns' defensive stats are slightly skewed. They have been involved in a few games this season that brought their points allowed average up. Their 161-157 victory over New Jersey was a complete shootout, a style of game that Phoenix knew they would win. If they wanted to they could have slowed the tempo down and the score would have been in the low 100s, however, they know that they can beat anyone in a shootout.