Rockets vs. Warriors
Judd: Warriors in seven. First of all, the Rockets will make it to this series by topping the Jazz. In that evenly matched series, home court has made the difference so far, and T-Mac appears determined to stave off another first-round exit, which would threaten to permanently tarnish his legacy. As for Rockets-Warriors, Don Nelson will attempt to bother McGrady with the same intelligent defensive strategies that have disturbed Dirk Nowitzki. They will run a smaller, quicker help defender at T-Mac's preferred dribbling side when he catches the ball. This strategy won't quite work the magic it has against Dirk, because T-Mac can force his way to the rim at will, but the series may come down to, for the Rockets, whether Battier, Alston, et al. hit shots off of ball rotation, and, for the Warriors, whether they can get out and run against Houston's transition defense, and whether Baron Davis can penetrate against the Rockets' point guard defenders.
Ben: Rockets in five (Because I can't pick Dallas). I agree with Judd that the Rockets will use their home court advantage to top the Jazz, and then this will be the match-up of injury-prone talents. Golden State (assuming they win) rode Baron Davis to the biggest first-round upset in NBA history, but they will fizzle against Tracy McGrady's Rockets. Don Nelson did not have the luck to have coached the Rockets two years ago and mentor Jeff Van Gundy, like he did in the first round with the Mavs and Avery Johnson. The stars just aren't aligned for this rare NBA Cinderella to strike twice. Yao has become the most dominant center, and Golden State has no answer for him, so he should average around 30 and 11 on the series. Both Davis and McGrady are playing with a chip on their shoulders, trying to prove they should be mentioned in the same breath as the elite stars in the league, but McGrady's ability to create shots out of thin air, both for himself and his team, gives him an edge.
Suns vs. Spurs
Judd: Suns in six. This is the Suns' year. Amare is healthy, Nash is hungry, and no one can keep up with their perfected screen-roll and transition offense, although a Warriors-Suns Western Conference Finals matchup would prove to feature some of the greatest single-series firepower in years. Even though Denver has failed to capitalize in its series against San Antonio, it has exposed the Spurs' weaknesses: they are slower, older, less dominant and not as offensively proficient as they once were. But this series will not be about the Spurs' inadequacies; it will be about the Suns' destiny.
Ben: Spurs in seven. I'm still not sold on the Suns style of play being able to hold up in the playoffs. If it is to hold up, this year is the year. With a healthy Amare and Kurt Thomas, and of course Steve Nash, this team can flat out play, and winning a title would not surprise me. It also would not surprise me if a rejuvenated Tim Duncan looks like the Duncan from several years ago and Tony Parker exploits Steve Nash's sub-par defense. This year may be the last great year for the aging Spurs, but they surged at the end of the season and are poised for a run.
Bulls vs. Pistons
Judd: Bulls in seven. Which Bulls team will show up? The one that took a beating from the Nets on the last night of the regular season and moved from the second seed to the fifth seed? Or the balanced, intense defensive force that disposed of the defending champion Heat in four straight games? This is a tough matchup for the Bulls: Hinrich will struggle to out-duel Billups, Prince will smother Deng and Hamilton will give Gordon all he can handle. Still, the Bulls, jolted by their end-of-regular-season letdown, are firing on all cylinders at just the right time. This series is a toss-up, but maybe 2007 is the year of quickness, balance and small-ball after all.
Ben: Bulls in five. Now that Judd is done reminding everyone about the Nets' regular season win over the Bulls, there is really no questioning which Bulls team will show up. They spanked the Heat, dominating each fourth quarter with the game on the line, a welcome sight for a team that struggled to close out games in its last two playoff appearances. There is no doubt the Baby Bulls are growing up, and that Luol Deng is a star in this league. Hinrich, an underrated defender who locked up DWade last week, will contain Chauncey Billups, and Deng and Gordon will continue to light it up. The Pistons have the best starting five in the East, but the Bulls have Big Ben inside, who is peaking at the right time. Best of all, the Bulls have the Pistons' number (3-1 this year) and are playing to prove a point: Detroit denied that the rivalry between the teams of 15 years ago is alive again. Maybe they will agree when the Bulls send them packing in five.
Nets vs. Cavs
Judd: Nets in seven. I can't pick against the Nets; sorry. The Cavs' frontcourt will beat up the Nets down low: New Jersey has nobody besides Jason Collins who can bang with Gooden, Ilgauskas and Varejao. And LeBron will exploit Richard Jefferson's still-tender ankle. But Lawrence Frank has thoroughly outcoached Toronto's Sam Mitchell, locking down Chris Bosh with inventive defensive schemes. It is up to Frank to force the ball out of LeBron's hands as much as possible and force Hughes and the rest of the supporting cast to step up. The Cavs' defense has been outstanding, but Carter and Jefferson demand significant attention, and with Nachbar shooting the way he is, the Nets may be able to spread the floor just enough.
Ben: Cavs in six. This is an intriguing series, and should provide some entertaining games. Jason Kidd is still the player he always was, and Steve Nash's shadow cannot hide that. The three-pronged attack of Kidd, Vince and Jefferson will give the Cavs all they can handle. But the Cavs basically got a first-round bye, while the Nets had to fight off a hungry Raptors club, and a rested LeBron will get the best of Vince. LeBron seems to have finally discovered he is unstoppable when attacking the paint, and with no inside presence, New Jersey will just have to sit back and "Witness." Also, Judd is right that Gooden, Ilgauskas and Varejao will dominate the boards, creating extra possessions which the Cavs will cash in on. Too much 'Bron, too much inside, and most importantly, too bad one of these teams will be in the Eastern Conference Finals when it wouldn't have made it past the first round in the West.