I am not writing this article to berate Mets fans about how their team will not be a part of October baseball this year. I am, however, writing this article to look for some explanation as to how the Mets were able to lose a seven-game lead with 17 days remaining in the baseball season.
If you were to ask any baseball fan in May (when the Yankees were 14 ½ games behind the Red Sox and the Mets were tied with the Red Sox for the best record in baseball) which New York team was going to make the playoffs-the answer would easily have been the Mets. On Sept. 12, David Wright famously said, "We couldn't have picked a better time to peak. We are playing our best baseball right now."
Wright was right in the fact that it was the "peak" of the season for the Mets, because what was to come after can only be described as a nightmare.
I'll start with some statistics. On Sept. 12, there was a 500-1 chance that the Mets would miss the playoffs. Without mentioning anything else, that is already quite remarkable. The team earned run average (ERA), increased every month of the season, from 2.96 in April to 5.11 in September, and an increase of .18 between August and September. Supposedly "promising" bullpen arms such as Joe Smith and Jorge Sosa, held ERAs of 6.35 and 8.31, respectively, since Sept. 14.
The play of shortstop Jose Reyes was also quite poor. Reyes, the team catalyst and leadoff spark, batted a meager .205 in the month of September. In August, Reyes stole 23 bases and was caught only three times. In September, Reyes stole five bases and was caught four times. This lack of production coming from an area in which it is most needed will never be sufficient for a team aspiring to make the playoffs.
The Mets had little, if any, home-field advantage. The Mets went 41-40 at home this year, an abominable winning percentage of .506. Had the Mets gone on to win the division, they would have owned the second lowest home winning percentage of division winners in baseball history (2001 Braves: .493). Among national league teams, the Mets ranked in the bottom half in winning percentage, earned run average and inherited runners scored at home.
Finally, the Philadelphia Phillies. It takes a second team for a collapse to take place. As the Mets began their free fall, the Phillies began to win baseball games. Since Sept. 14, the Phillies are 13-4 with a team ERA of 3.44. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins, now an MVP candidate, made good on his promise in February that the Phillies would be the team to beat in the East.
Although it is laughable to me that the Mets actually did this, it is important to finally assign some blame. I blame Tom Glavine, for not being able to get out of the first inning on Sunday against the hapless Florida Marlins. Glavine had nothing that afternoon, giving up seven runs in one-third of an inning and gave the Mets no chance of winning that baseball game. The game was over in the first inning. I also blame the bullpen and Billy Wagner, for blowing save after save, showing inability to hold multiple run leads. But in general, I blame everybody. The management, the players, everybody involved with the New York Mess. Good momentum carried them to the 12th of September, but horrific momentum brought them back down to today. The Mets became complacent with a seven-game lead before they had clinched a playoff berth. They started something that they were unable to finish, and instead of another NL playoff run, the Mets will hit the golf course and the bowling alley.
Quick Hits
MLB Postseason Awards
AL Most Valuable Player: Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees. Anyone who bats .314, hits 54 home runs and bats in 156 deserves something. Oh yeah, he also led a struggling team to the playoffs. Forgot that one. This will be a unanimous decision.
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett, SP, Red Sox. The right-hander is the only pitcher in baseball to get to 20 wins, and did so with power and skill. Guarantees a solid start each time he takes the ball.
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Carlos Pena, 1B, Devil Rays. This "failed project" wasn't a lock to make the roster in April. He went on to hit 46 long balls and bat in 121 runs. It's too bad the Rays are awful.
AL Rookie of the Year: Brian Bannister, SP, Royals. To go 12-9 as a rookie for the Kansas City Royals is saying something. His ERA of 3.87 is good, not spectacular, but he has had the best rookie season of anybody considering the circumstances. The guy is a Santana-esque 7-1 with an ERA under 2 since July 1.
NL Most Valuable Player: Matt Holliday, OF, Rockies. The Rox would not have won 70 games without this guy. He won the batting title with a .340 average, belted 36 home runs and led the league with 137 runs batted in. I think this is a clear choice, although Howard and teammate Jimmy Rollins (a new member of the 20-20-20-20 club) are solid opponents.
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, SP, Padres. Although he pitched poorly in the one-game playoff, he is the reason why they were there. The only pitcher in the National League with a sub-3 ERA of 2.54. Led NL in wins (19), ERA, and strikeouts (240). That would be the triple crown-bring out the trophy now.
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Oliver Perez, SP, Mets. Another supposed "failed project," Perez was acquired by the Mets last year in a trade for Xavier Nady. Perez notched 15 wins for the Amazing Mess, far more than expected.
NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers. The Brew Crew had a much better season than anyone expected, but still nobody would have picked Braun to slug 33 home runs and bat in 97 in a mere 113 games. He finished fifth in the league in homers between the names of Berkman and Cabrera. Although the Brewers missed the playoffs, they have a future to be excited about.