8. Atlanta Hawks
The Celtics took the first game in dominant fashion, which should set the trend for the rest of the series. The Hawks have good athletes, but Mike Bibby is too old to be able to create against Rajon Rondo, and the crew of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress and Sheldon Williams all lack the playoff experience to make any real noise. Plus, the Celtics are a team on a mission right now—just one look at Kevin Garnett and it’s clear that he would kill for that ring. Seriously, if the Celtics make it to the championship game and lose, Garnett may steal the Paul O’Brien Trophy from David Stern and run away like Shooter McGavin with the gold jacket in “Happy Gilmore”. “IT’S MY TROPHY!” Celtics in 4.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs.
5. Washington Wizards
LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James LeBron James. Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler are good enough to take one game, and the Cavs are in no way a great basketball team, but LeBron James is just too good. Cavs in 5.
2. Detroit Pistons vs.
7. Philadelphia 76ers
The Pistons like to cruise, and Flip Saunders gets out-coached every year in the playoffs, so I’m going to write off that loss in the first game and stick by the Pistons as the team that will represent the East in the NBA Finals. The Pistons have more depth than in recent years, and the same players fill the same leading roles. The 76ers have good young talent and heady veteran point guard Andre Miller to run the show, but I’d be shocked if they took another game off of Detroit—the Pistons let Philly sneak back into the game in Game 1, but they won’t let that happen again. Pistons in 5.
3. Orlando Magic vs.
6. Toronto Raptors
Ever since they were my second-favorite team because of those tight jerseys with the big purple dinosaurs (not Barney) on them, the Raptors have held a special place in my heart. Jose Calderon is the most underrated point guard in the league, and Chris Bosh is an All-Star. Still, the Raps have nobody to contain Dwight Howard, and the Magic have enough shooters, like the resurgent Hedo Turkoglo, to make Toronto pay for doubling. I see the Raptors taking two from this series with their European-import style of play, but ultimately Dwight Howard is Superman. Magic in 6.
1. L.A. Lakers vs.
8. Denver Nuggets
This series could end in a sweep, or it could end in seven games. I’m tempted to say Lakers in 5½ to split the difference, but Game 1 showed how emotion will dictate the flow of this match-up. The Nuggets have ridiculous talent with Carmelo, Iverson, Camby and Martin, but, to quote Charles Barkley, they can’t guard anybody. Their defense is turrible, turrible, turrible. Camby gets so many blocks because opposing guards can get to the hoop at will. Kobe is fired up, Pau Gasol is playing out of his head … forget it, I’ve talked myself into a sweep. Lakers in 4.
4. Utah Jazz vs.
5. Houston Rockets
Sorry Tracy McGrady. I’m a big fan of yours, and think that if your back wasn’t such a big problem, you’d be a perennial Second Team All-NBA player. But you’re not going to make it out of the first round … again. I loved Houston going into this season, and their winning streak was some of the most inspired February and March NBA basketball I’ve seen since the Bulls went 72-10, but they just aren’t built for the playoffs the way Utah is. Rafer Alston is a capable point guard, but he can’t run a team and hit big shots like Deron Williams. Luis Scola is playing up to his potential, but he’s no match for last year’s breakout star of the playoffs, Carlos Boozer. Jazz in 5.
2. New Orleans Hornets vs.
7. Dallas Mavericks
Chris Paul is very, very good at basketball. Watching him almost single-handedly turn a double-digit deficit into a double-digit lead was unlike any small guard since Isiah Thomas. Double-double machine David West is one of the best-kept secrets in this league and, along with Tyson Chandler, he should help the Hornets dominate Dallas upfront. As far as the Mavs, I don’t believe in curses, but I believe in mental barriers, and the Mavs have built up a huge one. Ever since letting the 2006 Finals slip through their fingers, the Mavs look like scared puppies in the playoffs, changing from Dr. Jekkyl to Mr. Run-and-Hyde. Losing that 12-point halftime lead was a worst-case scenario. That being said, the Mavs are still a damn good team, and Dirk is still a damn good player. But still, Hornets in 6.
3. San Antonio Spurs vs.
6. Phoenix Suns
Anybody who looks at this series and argues for seeding the top-16 teams regardless of conference is nuts. Fans get to watch a Conference Finals-caliber series in the first round. The double-overtime thriller that began this series was full of great players making big plays, one after another. With Duncan, Nash and Shaq on the court, we can watch the best point guard, power forward and center of the last decade at the same time. I wish the series could last forever, but it can’t. It will end, one team will lose, and it will ultimately be the Suns for the very reason they lost the series opener. Towards the end of the first overtime, they turned to hefty Boris Diaw to hit a fadeaway to win the game, where as the Spurs just let clever Manu Ginobili create an easy lay-up to win in the second OT. The Suns don’t have that go-to scorer on the perimeter, and that will continue to be the reason why Shaq won’t win a championship with a third team, at least this season. Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are too good and too savvy. Spurs in 7.