Connecticut: The Huskies have Hasheem Thabeet, the 7’3” center who averages 4.5 blocks per game, and alters countless more. With Thabeet clogging up the lane, UConn’s defense has only let up 80 points on four occasions this season. Unless Georgetown wins the Big East, no tournament team not named Pitt will have beaten the Huskies. Still, for some reason, perhaps their lack of a true point guard (A.J. Price’s assists and assist/turnover ratio are both significantly down from last season), this team doesn’t seem to have what it takes. Their performance in the Big East tournament will show whether UConn has “it,” that indescribable characteristic championship teams have. But throughout their rather dominant season, UConn hasn’t shown even shades of “it” and I’m betting they’ll be watching a rival hoist the Big East and NCAA trophies from the sidelines … or from home.
Duke: The Blue Devils have fizzled in the tournament recently, and this year’s team is not going to be the one to bring March glory back to Durham. In NCAA play, teams need a solid post and a heady point guard, and Duke has neither. Nolan Smith, who is not ready for the spotlight, and Greg Paulus, who has consistently failed in big spots, combine to average an embarrassing 3.1 assists per game. Gerald Henderson is electric and Kyle Singler has a great inside-outside offensive attack, but ultimately this looks like another year when Coach K’s commercials will be on air deeper into March than his team.
Kansas: The reigning national champs have exceeded expectations with their Big 12 regular season championship. Sherron Collins has led the way with gritty guard play and timely shooting and center Cole Aldrich built off of his impressive performance against North Carolina in the Final Four, averaging a double-double. The Jayhawks, who have overachieved all year and are so reliant on two players, are ripe for an upset. Depending on their draw, there’s a good chance their title defense will end before the Sweet Sixteen.
Louisville: The best team in the best conference has received surprisingly little fanfare. Winners of seven straight, the Cardinals appear to be peaking at the perfect time. Taking a closer look at Louisville’s schedule, however, raises more questions than answers. Their recent hot streak has happened against the weakest Big East teams — only their win over Marquette (who was playing their first game without injured point guard Dominic James) was against a top-six conference team. The Cardinals have just one quality road win — at Syracuse (who was in the midst of a 2-6 slump) — and have the unacceptable one-point home loss to UNLV and 33-point defeat at Notre Dame on their records. Quite frankly, that’s just not champion material.
Memphis: Not this year, not without Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts.
Michigan State: ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has eight of the 11 Big 10 teams in the field of 65, the highest percentage of any conference. Still, none of the teams besides the Spartans are overly impressive. For the entire season, the Spartans have been perched at the top of the conference, but they played a weak non-conference schedule, getting spanked by Maryland and UNC and failing to score over 63 points against the ACC squads. Sure, those losses were early in the season, but coupling them with losses at home to bubble teams Penn State and Northwestern aren’t exactly votes of confidence.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels have picked it up, winning 14 of their last 15. With Tyler Hansbrough inside, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green on the perimeter and Ty Lawson playing like the best point guard in the country, the Heels offense is incredibly potent. Hansbrough came back for his senior season with the sole goal of winning the National Championship, and, barring a disaster in the ACC tournament, his Heels should be the favorites. The concern with North Carolina is their shot selection down the stretch — they settle on contested threes too often. Still, with the way Lawson has been shooting the ball of late and Ellington and Green’s ability to hit from distance, their selection may not be a bad thing … and the way they’ve been playing, they may not have any close games anyway.
Oklahoma: My personal pick to win it all and thus a guarantee to all of Sooner nation that they’re going to have to rest their hopes for a title on Sam Bradford. I love what they bring to the table. The Sooners have Blake Griffin, the best player in the country, an inside presence who can get them easy baskets. Coming into the season, the knock on Oklahoma was their guard play, but Austin Johnson and freshman point guard Willie Warren have answered the call. Johnson, a senior, has a knack for knocking down big shots, and Warren hasn’t let his inexperience show, averaging 14.7 points per game. Still, the Sooners lack depth, with only seven players averaging over 15 minutes, but the long TV timeouts make this a minor concern come March. Griffin, a great passer out of the post, should be able to get his teammates open looks if a team throws a junk defense or double team at him, so the only real concern I see is foul trouble. Fouls have not been a problem for Griffin so far this season as he’s only fouled out of one game.
Pittsburgh: Clearly I’ve run out of column space, but don’t sleep on Pitt. They will win the Big East tournament, but for all the success Jamie Dixon has had in the Big East tourney, he has struggled in NCAAs, which is hard to ignore.