The Lakers, meanwhile, they’re like a bored PC user, because they’re about to enter a minefield. Like Napoleon crossing the Alps, their trek will be treacherous. They have more firepower and numbers than the other armies, but a small misstep could end their road earlier than expected. So, should both the Lakers and the Cavaliers make it to the Final(s) battlefield, who wins? Taking this drawn out and obnoxious metaphor at face value, I’d guess that, even if the Lakers were a slightly better army, the Cavaliers would have the edge.
For those of you who found Happy Gilmore confusing and needlessly complicated, Army A, or the Cavaliers, is a metaphor for Cleveland’s basketball team, coincidentally also called the Cavaliers. Same goes for Army B and the Los Angeles Lakers.
After Cleveland’s 30-point drubbing of Boston on Sunday, and the fact that Kevin Garnett’s gimpy knee won’t be better any time soon, the Eastern Conference is Cleveland’s to lose. They should breeze through a first-round series against either an old and dysfunctional Detroit team or a young and inexperienced Chicago team. The second round will pit the Cavs against either Miami or Atlanta, both of whom have gunning guards with the skills to shoot it out with James, but without sufficient supporting casts to pose a real threat.
The last 16 times Boston and Cleveland have played, tracing back to January 2007, the home team has been victorious. Cleveland has a 39-1 (as of April 12) record at home this season. Cleveland has home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, the Celtics are still the reigning champs and Paul Pierce is still playing at a high level on both ends of the floor, but without a healthy Garnett anchoring their defense, without a veteran backup big (who thought they’d be missing P.J. Brown), these Celtics are just not the same.
A side note about Garnett’s injury — I can’t help but think of Ty Lawson’s toe injury. The similarities are definitely there: a key player on one of the top four contenders has a questionable injury that could derail title hopes. Don’t expect the same results, though. The NCAA Tournament affords teams a week off between games, whereas the most time off Garnett will get is three days. There’s also more travel, and airplanes and knee problems just don’t get along. It just doesn’t bode well for Boston.
Right now, it’s looking like the Lakers’ first-round opponent will be the Utah Jazz, who are reeling, but still pose matchup problems. Bulky power forwards Paul Millsap and Carlos Boozer could have too much muscle for the long LA posts, and Deron Williams will have his way with any Lakers guard whose name doesn’t rhyme with “Bobe.” One glaring flaw in the Lakers’ defense all season has been the way they guard pick-and-roll teams, and Utah historically runs the pick-and-roll better than anyone.
In the second round, Houston, Portland or San Antonio will face the Lakers, and L.A. should be praying that Houston grabs the 3-seed. With both Ron Artest and Shane Battier harassing Bryant and a healthy Yao Ming playing like the best center in the West, the Rockets pose further issues for L.A. Even if L.A. does dodge the Rockets in the second round, Portland or San Antonio will test the Lakers far more than the Cavs’ second round opponent. Smart money is on the Blazers, who are young, healthy and peaking, to top the old, injured and slumping Spurs. The Blazers have a superstar in Brandon Roy, a post-scoring threat in LaMarcus Aldridge and a defensive anchor in the disappointing-yet-still-effective Greg Oden. Oden, who is finally healthy and playing with all the energy and awkwardness of a Tyler Hansbrough fist pump, could be a wildcard during the Blazers’ playoff run. The Blazers and Lakers split the regular season series, but Portland has won the last two meetings, including an eight-point win last Friday.
Should they survive the difficulties in the first two rounds, and they should, the Conference Finals will not exactly qualify as rest for the weary. Houston, Denver, or maybe even New Orleans will be waiting for the Lakers, ensuring another hard-fought battle. New Orleans is another pick-and-roll team, and they have James Posey, who gave Kobe issues in last year’s Finals; Denver held the Lakers high-octane offense to a season-low 79 points on Feb. 27.
All that being said, the Lakers will win the Western Conference, they’ll just accumulate more damage than Cleveland along the road. In an old-school MLB playoff format, where both leagues’ top teams play for the title, I wouldn’t blink before picking the Lakers. But with all the trolls under their bridge to the Finals, a Cleveland pick becomes more tempting.
The postseason that most mirrors what I think will transpire this year was in 1987, when the defending champion Celtics swept the Bulls, but had to deal with Jordan, then played a dramatic seven-game series against Milwaukee and Detroit before playing Los Angeles, who lost just one game prior to the Finals. The Lakers, like this year’s Cavs, posted the league’s best record after falling in the conference finals the season before. They also had a 6’8” playmaker who won MVP, just like this year’s Cavs will when LeBron is inevitably crowned.
The end result? The ’87 Lakers won the series, 4-2. In the marathon that is the NBA playoffs, it’s best to avoid the hills and save your legs for that final sprint. That’s why the Cavaliers are my tentative pick to rule the playoff battlefield and give King James his rightful throne.