It is quite conceivable that BYU will run the table this year. Few teams in the MWC appear poised to give them trouble. The two that pose threats — No. 15 Texas Christian and No. 18 Utah — both have to play the Cougars at BYU. Ditto for BYU’s only remaining difficult non-conference matchup, against the now-unranked but still dangerous Florida State Seminoles. Should BYU go undefeated, and should there be fewer than two other one-loss teams, it will be hard to defend the usual BCS practice of rewarding a worthy mid-major team with a spot in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl, with no thought to allowing them to play for the national crown.
BYU’s neutral-site victory over Oklahoma — by far the most impressive regular season victory ever by a competitive mid-major school — will make the Cougars’ non-conference resume equal to or better than those of any of their prospective BCS title game competitors. As for the historic Achilles Heel of title game aspirants from the MWC and Western Athletic Conference, strength of conference, it is currently very questionable whether the MWC is any weaker this year than some of the less powerful BCS conferences. The league’s top three teams are all in the AP Top 20, a statement that can’t be made of the Big East, Big Ten, or Pac-10. If TCU and Utah can handle non-conference foes Clemson and Oregon, respectively, in the next two weeks, anyone still claiming that an undefeated MWC champion won’t deserve to be considered for the national title will be worthy only of ridicule. In fact, should the MWC continue to perform at a high level, a possible 12-0 BYU team would have a legitimate argument for a title game birth even if two undefeated teams remain from the power conferences. There is certainly a case to be made that an undefeated BYU season featuring wins over Oklahoma, Florida State, TCU and Utah would be more impressive than, say, an unbeaten year for Cincinnati or Georgia Tech.
Of course, doubts remain. It is anyone’s guess whether BYU would have pulled the upset over Oklahoma if Sam Bradford hadn’t left the game injured in the first half. At the same time, as Sports Illustrated’s Stewart Mandel points out, those who ascribe the result to an unlucky injury ignore the fact that the game was a very even 7-7 struggle when Bradford got injured, and the reality that BYU’s 1,000 yard rusher from last season, Harvey Unga, missed the entire game, essentially making the Cougars one-dimensional. I’m inclined to argue that while Bradford’s injury was a factor, one can’t point to it as the direct cause of BYU’s triumph.
As for other doubts and pitfalls along BYU’s hypothetical road to Pasadena, they are manifold. If Oklahoma ends up going 7-5, for exmple, that will seriously reduce the impressiveness of BYU’s win. Likewise, if the other MWC powerhouses fall in the crucial nonconference battles I highlighted above, it will be a blow to the conferences’ pretentions of belonging with the elite of the college football hierarchy, and by extension, to BYU’s argument for a spot in the big game. Most simply, if the Cougars go down in any of their upcoming battles, their dreams of a title are kaput. However, if Oklahoma wins 10 or 11, BYU wins 12, the MWC stays strong, and two clearly superior undefeated teams don’t emerge from the BCS power conferences, I expect the Cougars to be given a crack at the title. It’s only fair.
Thoughts on the Past Weekend
The Good: Michigan
In the interests of full disclosure, let me first say that I am a diehard University of Michigan fan who suffered through the chronic underachieving of the Henne-Hart senior season, as well as the humiliation of last year’s 3-9 debacle. Saturday’s 38-34 victory over Notre Dame was an incredibly cathartic experience for me personally, and I found myself singing “Hail to the Victors” at top of my lungs on multiple occasions. QB Tate Forcier turned in one of the most polished performances I have ever seen from a true freshman, especially one in his second game in a complex spread offense. While some drop-off may occur, and while Michigan’s defense looked shaky at times, it appears very unlikely that Michigan’s bowl game drought will continue another year. With some breaks, more stellar play from Forcier, and both Pennsylvania State University and Ohio State University at home, the Big Ten title might even be conceivable. Anyway, the future looks bright in Ann Arbor.
The Bad: Ohio State
This was a bad loss for the Buckeyes, even coming against the third-ranked team in the land. Pryor underperformed, as did the entire rush offense (88 yards on the ground with a running QB), and the defense gave up an 86-yard late fourth quarter drive against true freshman USC QB Matt Barkley to cough up a 15-10 lead. This OSU’s game to lose, and they lost it. This loss, combined with Michigan State University’s home collapse against the Central Michigan Chippewas, will again raise questions about the competitiveness of the Big Ten.
The Ugly: Oklahoma State
The Big 12, thought to be college football’s premier league this season, continues to crash and burn as OSU joined its rivals from Norman in squandering their national title hopes. The Houston Cougars emasculated the Cowboys’ defense for 512 total yards en route to a 45-35 win, as QB Zac Robinson threw a late pick to ensure his team’s demise. Not that Cowboys’ coach Mike Gundy will care what I have to say about his team’s home defeat. He doesn’t read the newspaper. Because it’s garbage. Well, at least he can take solace in the fact that he’s still a man, even though he’s now older than 40.