Breaking their chances down, I’ll look at the crucial contests that will determine who will meet up in Pasadena this January to play for the national title. Pre-emptive apologies to No. 4 Boise State — it’s hard to take your national title bid seriously when your non-Oregon wins have come against teams that might have trouble putting Smith College away on the gridiron.
The Elite
No. 1 Florida (6-0): This has been the team to beat all season, returning stud QB Tim Tebow and all 11 starters from last year’s stifling national championship defense. That said, no Gator receivers have yet stepped up to take the place of departure Percy Harvin, and the team looked highly suspect in last Saturday’s 23-20 win over Arkansas. Going forward, the rest of the Gators’ schedule is easy (toughest game: No. 24 South Carolina on the road), so there is no reason why they won’t meet up with No. 2 Alabama for an SEC Championship that will be, in effect, a national semifinal.
No. 2 Alabama (7-0): If the Gators were the touted team entering the season, the Tide has easily been the most impressive squad over the course of the year. Ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press Poll, ’Bama has succeeded the way most Nick Saban-coached teams do — with a swarming, aggressive defense that has allowed only 81 points all year. Meanwhile, sophomore RB Mark Ingram has been a workhorse on the ground, averaging 6.7 yards per carry on 135 attempts. This is by far the best team in the SEC West, and they should roll over the overrated No. 9 LSU and the rest of their foes en route to the aforementioned battle of undefeated teams against Florida.
No. 3 Texas (6-0): The Longhorns came into the season looking almost as invincible as Florida, but have looked distinctly human since then. While they remain undefeated, they struggled in the first half against foes as pedestrian as Wyoming, Colorado\ and Sam Bradford-less Oklahoma. QB Colt McCoy, in particular, has played his way out of a Heisman front-runner position with a series of mediocre performances. While Texas could certainly run the table in this season’s underwhelming Big 12 and get to the BCS title game undefeated, they have a big test next Saturday when they go to Stillwater, Oklahoma to face No. 15 Oklahoma State. The Cowboys could play their way into a BCS bowl if they beat Texas, and their offense is certainly high-octane enough to match Texas score for score. If Texas weathers that storm, they will have a clear path to the big game. From what I’ve seen, I’m not sure they’ll be able to do it.
Waiting in the Wings
No. 5 Cincinnati (6-0): This is a team that could make some pre-season bettors pretty rich if they get the right breaks. If QB Tony Pike — who just had a plate repaired in his left (non-throwing) arm — is serviceable for the rest of the season, the Bearcats have a great chance to win out in the woeful Big East. A Dec. 5 trip to No. 20 Pittsburgh could pose problems, but a healthy Cincinnati is indubitably the best team in their conference. While the state of the Big East makes an undefeated run feasible for the Bearcats, it also means that if three major conference teams are unbeaten at the end of the season, Cincinnati will be on the outside looking in. Coach Brian Kelly’s favorite teams for the rest of the year should be Oklahoma State, Michigan State and No. 19 Ohio State, who have the best chance of knocking off No. 3 Texas and No. 6 Iowa.
No. 6 Iowa (7-0): The Hawkeyes are the team with the best chance of crashing the SEC-Big 12 party this January. They’ve been inexplicable at times, with near-run escapes against Northern Iowa and Arkansas State. They’ve also been brilliant on the road against Penn State and Wisconsin. The question is which they will be in the two dangerous games they have left, at Michigan State and at Ohio State. If Iowa can win those — which looks like a much more feasible proposition given the Buckeyes’ newfound erratic play — they should go 12-0. If that happens, the Hawkeyes will have the inside track over Cincinnati because the Big 10 is held in higher regard than the Big East, and will be a Texas loss away from the national title game.
No. 7 USC (5-1): The only reason USC is in this group of second-tier contenders is because human voters in the Coaches and Harris polls like the Trojans because of their storied reputation. In reality, their case to play for the national championship — even if they win out — is little better than that of LSU or No. 10 Miami (Fla.). Their bizarre defeat at Washington was inexcusable, and their “signature wins” have come against California and Ohio State, both of which are demonstrably overrated. If they beat No. 11 Oregon on the road to an 11-1 finish, their credibility will increase slightly; on the other hand, Oregon lost to No. 4 Boise State as well. To get to the national title game, USC will need Texas, Cincinnati and Iowa to lose.
Long Shots
No. 8 Texas Christian (6-0): To me, this is the most intriguing of the mid-major teams. With three teams in the Top 20, the Mountain West is hardly a joke (at least no more so than the Big East, ACC and Pac-10). TCU’s non-conference wins over Clemson and Virginia are not especially impressive, but if they beat No. 16 Brigham Young and No. 18 Utah, their argument to go to the championship game will be as strong on the merits as that of Cincinnati. While an unbeaten Horned Frogs team will not get in if there are two undefeated major conference teams left, it will be interesting to see what would transpire should there only be one.
No. 9 LSU (5-1): Arguably, the Tigers should be 3-3 rather than 5-1, with narrow escapes against Mississippi State and Georgia. However, if they can shock Alabama in Tuscaloosa and then beat Florida in the SEC Championship, they’ll jump mto the head of the one-loss pack and could get to the title game.