While it was not quite the Miracle on Ice, it is fair to say that the United States’ 5-3 victory over Canada in Group A of the Olympic Men’s Ice Hockey Competition was a bona fide shocker. Team USA featured a collection of capable NHL regulars, with a sprinkling of stars like the New Jersey Devils’ Zach Parise, the New York Rangers’ Chris Drury, the Chicago Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane and Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller mixed in. It was considered something of a pedestrian team, however, one that would make the quarterfinals with little problem and then go down quietly to one of the true medal contenders. Canada, on the other hand, was widely regarded as the best team in the world, featuring the cream of the NHL crop at every position and starring the league’s poster boy, Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins. For a fanatical Canadian fan base, a drubbing of the oft-grating neighbors to the south was supposed to be the opening act in a triumphal march to the first home hockey gold ever for the Canucks, a quest that has become the center of national obsession in the Great White North.

From the very outset, though, it became clear that Team USA did not plan to follow the script. Forty-one seconds into the game, ageless USA defenseman Brian Rafalski (Detroit Red Wings) scored a shock goal that put the underdogs up 1-0. When the Canadians equalized later in the period, it took the Americans less than a minute to respond, with Rafalski netting another one off a miscue by Canadian goalie Martin Brodeur (Devils). Despite being outshot 19-6 in the first period, the USA entered intermission up 2-1. Canada scored a goal early in the second, and for most of the period the score remained knotted at 2-2. Finally, with 3:14 left in the period, Drury took advantage of messy defending by the Canadians to knock in Team USA’s third goal. In the final period, Jamie Langenbrunner (Devils) took advantage of an American power play to widen the margin to 4-2. However, with 3:09 left in the game, Crosby scored on a nifty deflection to get the Canadians back within one. In the ensuing two minutes, Canada poured on the pressure, forcing Miller to a series of mind-boggling saves. Finally, with less than a minute left and Canada’s goalie pulled for the extra attacker, Ryan Kesler (Vancouver Canucks) scored a diving-one handed empty net goal to seal the deal for Team USA.

Two factors were essential to the American victory. First, Team USA grabbed the momentum early, and never allowed the Canadians to reclaim it. With a more talented team and the home ice advantage, any Canadian lead would have made it extremely difficult for the Americans to come back. However, Team USA jumped out of the gate with Rafalski’s early goal, and unknotted 1-1 and 2-2 ties in their favor. Second, Miller played the game of his life. With the Canadians outshooting the USA 45-23 over the course of the game, the Sabres net-minder was forced to make 42 stops, many of them stellar. His play in the last quarter of the third period was the sort of virtuoso goalie performance that will be talked about (or complained about) for years to come. The “hot goalie factor” — crucial in hockey playoffs and short tournaments — was certainly with the Yanks on Sunday.

Psychologically, the game was a fitting testament to the way the Olympics have gone so far for the Canadians. Entering the games with the uncharacteristically brash goal of “owning the podium,” the Canucks have instead been owned, most visibly by an American contingent that has out-medaled Canada by a margin of 25-10. Getting shown up on home ice in the national sport by a country that most Canadians don’t consider to be a “real” hockey nation was the unkindest cut of all. While Team Canada is by no means out (or oot) of the running for the gold, losing to the USA will certainly make it more difficult for them to “pick the national chin off the floor,” to use the phraseology of Vancouver Sun columnist Cam Cole. The streets of downtown Vancouver were uncharacteristically quiet late Sunday evening.

In terms of the outlook for the rest of the tournament, the United States’ win could not have been more important. By beating Canada, Team USA earned a bye for the first round of action, while Canada has to face Germany. Additionally, with Sweden’s 3-0 triumph over the Finns, the USA advances as the top seed in the tournament, which means that they will avoid the dangerous Slovaks — who have already beaten Russia in a shootout — and instead face a less formidable Swiss or Belarussian team. Barring catastrophe, the Americans look like a good bet to make the semifinals and play for a medal.

Canada, on the other hand, made their road to gold a whole lot tougher by dropping the ball on Sunday. Assuming they beat Germany, they get a quarterfinal date with third-seeded Russia, a team that Canadian fans expected to meet in the gold medal game and not a moment before. Canada will have to get its defensive house in order before that matchup; if the gritty but not especially high-flying Americans netted five on the Canucks, it’s frightening to imagine what a Russian team featuring Alexander Ovechkin (Washington Capitals), Evgeny Malkin (Penguins), Ilya Kovalchuk (Devils) and Alexander Semin (Capitals) could do to them if they don’t improve. Even if they beat Russia, Canada will then likely face Sweden. Sweden has been in form recently, as indicated by its spanking of Finland, and has in Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers) its own stone cold net-minder. In short, the Canadians face an odyssey just to get to the gold medal game, where they would face Finland, the Czech Republic or the United States. Unlike in 2002 — when Belarus’ upset of Sweden gifted Canada a finals berth — this time the Canadians are going to have to secure their Olympic dream the hard way.

So, how will it play out? The USA gets to the semifinals in an unexpectedly close win over Switzerland. In the 4-5 game, the Czechs — who beat Slovakia and played Russia tough — overcome a Finnish team that looked great against the likes of Belarus and Germany but fell on its face against Sweden. In the 3-6 game, the Canadians have shown no indication so far that they can handle the pressure of a nation’s hopes resting on their shoulders. I’m going with the up-tempo Russians in a classic. In the 2-7 matchup, Slovakia holds its own but a stronger Swedish side wins out in the end. In the semifinals, I like Team USA gutting out an overtime win over a Czech team that is not as strong as it has been in past Olympics. I also don’t see the Swedish team, however hot, taking down the Russian superstars. This, of course, would set up a dramatic USA-Russia gold medal game, which would necessitate a bacchanal of public drunkenness and outlandish nationalism, complete with a mandatory watching of Miracle. In the game itself, I think Russia might be too much. The USA keeps it close until the very end, but Ovechkin scores late in the third period to seal a 4-2 victory for Russia.